Final Mets Prospect Countdown: No. 1-5

by John Vittas (@JohnVittas3)

Over the course of the offseason, Across the John has posted scouting reports on the top 40 prospects in the Mets system. With Spring Training in full swing, it's time to reveal the top five prospects in the Mets farm system heading into 2014.

Keep in mind, Across the John prospect rankings do not include any player who has already made their Big League debut. Therefore, you won't see names like Travis d'Arnaud or Wilmer Flores.

40. OF Darrell Ceciliani
39. RHP Luis Cessa
38. RHP Cameron Griffin
37. SS Jeff McNeil
36. OF Joe Tuschak
35. 1B Matt Oberste
34. RHP Hansel Robles
33. RHP Akeel Morris
32. OF Champ Stuart
31. OF Ivan Wilson
To read the reports on prospects 31-40, click here.
30. RHP Rainy Lara
29. RHP Luis Mateo
28. OF Dustin Lawley
27. 3B Aderlin Rodriguez
26. OF Jared King
25. RHP Miller Diaz
24. RHP John Gant
23. 2B LJ Mazzilli
22. RHP Cory Mazzoni
21. RHP Tyler Bashlor
For the reports on prospects 21-30, click here.
20. RHP Matt Bowman
19. RHP Robert Gsellman
18. OF Cory Vaughn
17. LHP Jack Leathersich
16. RHP Rob Whalen
For reports on prospects 16-20, click here.
15. RHP Chris Flexen
14. RHP Michael Fulmer
13. RHP Gabriel Ynoa
12. SS Gavin Cecchini

11. INF Dilson Herrera
For the article on prospects 11-15, click here.
10. RHP Domingo Tapia
9. 1B Jayce Boyd
8. SS Amed Rosario
7. C Kevin Plawecki
6. OF Brandon Nimmo
For the article on prospects 6-10, click here.

5. Steven Matz - LHP

Ward Melville HS (NY) - 2nd Round of the 2009 Draft

Opening Day Age: 22

Projected Opening Day Assignment: High-A St. Lucie

General Numbers: gave up just 4.1 hits/start in 2013 (A-ball Savannah)

Relevant Numbers: yet to reach 140 innings in his career

Positives: After two years of rehab, Steven Matz has resurfaced as a prized prospect. The lefty from Long Island registered a full-season-player best 2.62 ERA over 21 starts for Savannah. His emergence in 2013 goes beyond the numbers, as his fastball has returned to the mid-90s. His curveball and changeup are weapons and he’s working on a slider which should help him against lefties (LH batters had more success than righties). His motion is smooth and repeatable and his command was great. I’ll be the first to call Matz a top-5 prospect, and I think that’s where he belongs.

Negatives: Durability and experience are major questions. With only 27 minor league games under his belt, the Ward Melville standout will be the least experienced player of anyone in the Florida State League. The Mets will continue to monitor his innings closely, and it’ll take a while to build up his season-long stamina.

Style: Cliff Lee

Across the John Preseason Rank: 19

ATJ Midseason Rank: 34

Jonathan Mayo Top 20: Not Ranked

Keith Law Top 10: Not Ranked

FanGraphs Rank: 8

Baseball America Top 10: Not Ranked

4. Dominic Smith - 1B

Serra HS (CA) - 1st Round of the 2013 Draft (11th Overall)

Opening Day Age: 18

Projected Opening Day Assignment: Extended Spring Training

General Numbers: .837 professional OPS straight out of high school (GCL and R-Kingsport)

Relevant Numbers: too early for these

Positives: Smith is a pure hitter - the best of the 2013 draft class according to some. It all comes naturally to him. His swing is as pretty as it gets and that may not even be his strongest tool. Scouts have already said he could become the best defensive first baseman in the game. It’s all way too premature, the kid is 18, but the hype will grab your attention. His hands and bat speed are noticeable, and many see him as the top position-player prospect in the system.

Negatives: TBD

Style: Ryan Howard (better defense and less power)

Across the John Preseason Rank: Not in the system

ATJ Midseason Rank: 14

Jonathan Mayo Rank: 7

Keith Law Rank: 3 (37th in baseball)

FanGraphs Rank: 3

Baseball America Rank: 4

3. Rafael Montero - RHP

Higuerito, Dominican Republic - Signed as International Free Agent

Opening Day Age: 23

Projected Opening Day Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

General Numbers: 3rd straight year with a sub-2.80 ERA

Relevant Numbers: 85 hits in 88 IPs in the hitter-friendly PCL

Positives: Rafael can locate better than anyone. His control has gotten him this far, but its been his velocity to improve and take him up the prospect lists. He hit 96 at the Futures Game in 2013, and his changeup is as good as it gets. MILB.com’s Sam Dykstra called him the most underrated prospect in baseball. http://milbprospective.mlblogs.com/2014/01/24/rounding-the-bases-top-100-talk/

The other positive is that he’s weeks away from making his Major League debut. I’d bet he beats Syndergaard and deGrom to Flushing in 2014.

Negatives: He’s only played three years in the Minors and has never had more Ks than innings pitched in any of those three years, leaving some worried that he’ll be hittable in the Majors.

Comparison: Jordan Zimmermann (without the breaking ball)

Across the John Preseason Rank: 6

ATJ Midseason Rank: 6

Jonathan Mayo Rank: 3 (85th in baseball)

Keith Law Rank: 4 (60th in baseball)

FanGraphs Rank: 5

Baseball America Rank: 3

2. Cesar Puello - OF

La Romana, Dominican Republic - Signed as International Free Agent

Opening Day Age: 23

Projected Opening Day Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

General Numbers: 39 XBH in 91 games (Double-A Binghamton)

Relevant Numbers: raised his average 66 points to .326 in 2013

Positives: No one has Cesar Puello ranked this high, but the guy is as close to a 5-tool player as anyone the Mets have. In a season overshadowed by his PED suspension, Puello had a breakout campaign in 2013, turning his elite tools into on-field dominance. Registering an OPS of .950, Puello was on his way to a 20 HR and 30 SB season before the suspension. He’s built like a truck, and Baseball America has tabbed his outfield arm the best in the system each of the past two years. For a team desperate for outfielders, people have consistently overlooked the best position player prospect in Puello.

Negatives: He took drugs, that’s never good. But Biogenesis is gone now, and hopefully Cesar is the same player while clean.

Style: Yasiel Puig (yes, Yasiel Puig)

Across the John Preseason Rank: 9

ATJ Midseason Rank: 2

Jonathan Mayo Top 20: 6

Keith Law Rank: 9

FanGraphs Top 15: Not Ranked

Baseball America Top 10: Not Ranked

1. Noah Syndergaard - RHP

Legacy HS (TX) - 1st Round of the 2010 Draft (38th Overall)

Opening Day Age: 21

Projected Opening Day Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

General Numbers: did not allow a run in 3 of his last 4 starts (Double-A Binghamton)

Relevant Numbers: 133 Ks, 28 walks in 117 innings

Positives: Where do you even begin? He’s 6-6, 230, throws 98 miles an hour, knows how to pitch, and has the attitude to boot. He’s athletic and has three plus-pitches. A mid-to-upper 90s fastball with sink, a mid-80s change and a h-h-hammer that leaves hitters screwing themselves into the ground. He’s smart, competitive and knows what it takes to be the best. The consensus is that he’ll be up mid-season, some time around July. Get used to saying Harvey-Wheeler-Syndergaard, because that’ll be the front three for at least four years.

Negatives: 2013 was the first time Noah made over 20 starts, and so his innings could be limited the next two seasons.

Comparison: Chris Tillman (but better)

Across the John Preseason Rank: 3

ATJ Midseason Rank: 3

Jonathan Mayo Rank: 1 (11th in baseball)

Keith Law Rank: 1 (24th in baseball)

FanGraphs Rank: 1

Baseball America Rank: 1

Top 10 Minor League Headlines from 2013

by John Vittas

1. The Dominance of Noah Syndergaard

By far the most Major League-relevant storyline from the farm system in 2013 was the first season of Noah Syndergaard. He wasn’t good, he was great. All the numbers indicate future success, and from what the scouts say, he will be an ace.

Syndergaard gave up 10 less hits than innings, and struck out better than 10 batters per nine. If you take out his disaster of a final start in August, he posted a 2.43 ERA. But superseding the numbers is his stuff, which reportedly improved in 2013.

Syndergaard dropped his arm slot and didn’t lose any command, allowing him to pump 96-98 consistently. Not to mention he has a wipeout curveball. I’d be shocked if Noah wasn’t in the Mets’ rotation by July 1 next year. The prospects of a Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, Niese, Gee rotation is a pleasant one. When you factor in Rafael Montero and Jenrry Mejia, it gets even scarier.

Photo: Baseball America

Syndergaard stands to make the Harvey-Wheeler duo a trio

2. The Success from Top to Bottom

The once A-ball prospects we’d been hearing about have now reached the upper levels and Paul DePodesta has continued to stock talent from top to bottom, resulting in wins throughout the program.

The system-wide .532 winning percentage is impressive, but consider that the four full-season squads posted a .569 mark. That percentage over a 554-game sample will make statsitcal nerds jump out of their seats.

The 51’s 81-63 mark was the best by a Mets Triple-A team since the Matt Franco-led 2001 Norfolk Tides. Keep in mind, the majority of the Triple-A talent resided in Flushing this season, and their rotation was full of journeymen, so it’s no surprise that the 51’s led the PCL in slugging. Give Wally Backman a lot of credit here.

A championship was won by a Mets affiliate in 2013 as well (seeing “championship” and “Mets” in the same sentence is mind-blowing). It was the first by a Mets’ affiliate since 2006. The low-A Savannah Sand Gnats took the South Atlantic League title thanks to a Johnson-Schiling-like postseason rampage put on by Steven Matz and Gabriel Ynoa. Those two led the league’s second-best pitching staff to a 3.15 team ERA and a 77-61 overall record.

But the best team in 2013 was the Double-A Binghamton Mets. Their 86-55 (.610) mark cleared the rest of the competition in the Eastern League by a comfortable 10 games, as the pitching staff and offense both ranked top-2 in the league. Manager Pedro Lopez led the B-Mets to their first playoff appearance since 2004 in his first season at the helm. He has dominated at every level he’s coached at, and has become a major managerial prospect in baseball.

Photo: metsmerizedonline.com

1B Allan Dykstra was a huge reason for the B-Mets offensive success

3. The Arrival of the Lefty Relievers

For a Major League team that lacked a lockdown lefty, the Mets’ now possess several successful southpaws in their farm system. Jack Leathersich, Adam Kolarek, Hamilton Bennett, Jim Fuller, TJ Chism and Chase Huchingson all had dominant seasons, and made believers out of many scouts.

Outside of Leathersich, the rest of the group appeared to be non-factors on most prospect lists, but Kolarek and Huchingson have continued to dominate Double-A hitters, and could be in Flushing sooner than later.

Here’s some of the numbers:

Leathersich: 102 strikeouts in 58 innings

Kolarek: 2.28 ERA - third straight season with an ERA below 3, has improved that mark in each of his 4 minor league seasons

Bennett: 1.85 ERA (2nd straight sub-2 season, career 2.30 ERA)

Huchingson: 55 hits in 67 innings, 1.61 ERA in his first season in the pen

Fuller: 0.84 ERA in St. Lucie, 15 hits in 32 innings

Chism: 2.21 ERA (3rd consecutive season below 2.40)

4. The Power of Dustin Lawley, Allan Dykstra and Travis Taijeron

Speaking of non-factors on the prospect scene, the three sluggers listed above all had tremendous seasons. All with 20-plus homer seasons, it was Dykstra who posted a .938 OPS, walking an eye-popping 102 times.

Lawley finished second in the organization (Wilmer Flores) with 96 RBIs and led the system with 26 home runs. However, Taijeron might be the most promising of the bunch, since he can play multiple outfield positions and led the trio in average for most of the season, posting a .303 mark with St. Lucie.

5. Michael Fulmer’s Lost Season

The young Oklahoma star missed the first half of the season after tearing his meniscus in Spring Training, and then was forced to shut it down at the end. He managed just nine starts, two of them of the rehab variety. He did fare well, however.

Despite the lack of time on the mound, Fulmer is touted as a kid who already knows how to pitch, so the lost time isn’t as detrimental as it usually would be for a 20-year-old. He’ll probably be back in Port St. Lucie next year, but his 2015 arrival time may still be feasible.

Photo: ESPN

Fulmer in Spring Training (left)

Disclaimer: He may fall out of the top-10 on many prospect lists, but don’t get caught napping on Fulmer.

6. The Next Wave of Starting Pitchers Takes Shape

This could be the most promising news of the year. Despite the plethora of arms throughout the system, the lower levels lacked them. But four youngsters posted big-time numbers after showing considerable improvement in 2013:

John Gant: 81 Ks in 71 IPs (2nd in league behind teammate Miller Diaz), 2.89 ERA

Chris Flexen: 8-1 with a 2.09 ERA, 53 H in 69 IPs, 2 shutouts at 19 years old

Rob Whalen: 1.87 ERA in first full season, .187 opponents AVG, 2.4 ground outs per fly ball

Robert Gsellman: 2.58 ERA pitching at all 3 levels of A-ball, only 20 years old

A little seasoning has given their Big League bodies some Big League arsenals. All were drafted for their potential, and all are beginning to realize it. All four have gotten their fastballs consistently over 90 miles an hour, and all have touched 94 at one time or another.

Chances are we’ll see them all together in Savannah next year, which would make for yet another dominant, promising staff for famous pitching coach Frank Viola.

Photo: metsmerizedonline.com

19-year old Chris Flexen

7. The Suspension of Cesar Puello

No position player in the system has as high of a ceiling as Cesar Puello. He was often talked about before 2013, but there was always a caveat next to his prospect status: he never put up numbers. Well this year, he did.  And he hit a lot. He batted .326 in 91 games, boasting a robust .950 OPS at the Double-A level. It took him five years, but at 22, Cesar Puello was finally hitting, and doing it for power (16 HRs).

However, he did it all under a cloud of suspicion, as his name was one of the few non-Major Leaguers on the Biogenesis list. And sure enough, the suspension came down in August and Puello’s best professional year came to a screeching halt.

There was a chance he would have played for the Mets in September if he was clean, but regardless, I’d bet we see him in New York at some point in 2014.

8. The Domingo Tapia Project

Domingo Tapia throws hard, 100 miles-an-hour to be exact. But his first stint in the Florida State League did not go well, as he walked 63 batters in 101 innings. The worst part was that he averaged less than five innings per start, including a few where he was yanked in the second inning.

There’s no doubt the Dominican Tapia has promise, but he will have to sharpen up his breaking ball and locate more consistently to reach the Show.

 Photo: metsminors.com

Domingo Tapia

9. Matt Reynolds Looking Like a Waste of a Second Rounder

He was never a big prospect, but Matt Reynolds was an elite college hitter with leadership ability and a strong  all-around game. Well in his first two years in the Minors, he’s a career .234 hitter with just eight home runs. A 23-year old who can’t hit in A-ball leaves doesn’t sound as appetizing as a 21-year old 2nd-round captain out of the SEC, which is what Reynolds was less than two years ago.

Photo: ncaa.com

Former Razorback star Matt Reynolds

10. Rainy Lara and Gabriel Ynoa Not Looking Back

Remember that dominant 2012 Brooklyn Cyclones rotation? Well the crew had an overall successful 2013. Luis Cessa and Hansel Robles had solid years, but it was Gabriel Ynoa and Rainy Lara who shined.

While in Savannah, Lara led the entire Minor Leagues in WHIP (0.89) and ERA (1.42) through his first eight starts, earning him the promotion to the Florida State League. Ynoa, on the other hand, remained in Savannah and absolutely lit up the South Atlantic League.

He finished fourth in the league with a 2.72 ERA, giving up just five runs in his final four regular season starts. Ynoa carried his dominance into the playoffs, where he gave up just two runs in 14 and two-thirds postseason innings, leading the Gnats to the SAL championship.

Former Met, New York-native and 3-time MLB All Star Frank Viola continues to work wonders with young Mets' arms when they reach Savannah