Final Mets Prospect Countdown: No. 1-5

by John Vittas (@JohnVittas3)

Over the course of the offseason, Across the John has posted scouting reports on the top 40 prospects in the Mets system. With Spring Training in full swing, it's time to reveal the top five prospects in the Mets farm system heading into 2014.

Keep in mind, Across the John prospect rankings do not include any player who has already made their Big League debut. Therefore, you won't see names like Travis d'Arnaud or Wilmer Flores.

40. OF Darrell Ceciliani
39. RHP Luis Cessa
38. RHP Cameron Griffin
37. SS Jeff McNeil
36. OF Joe Tuschak
35. 1B Matt Oberste
34. RHP Hansel Robles
33. RHP Akeel Morris
32. OF Champ Stuart
31. OF Ivan Wilson
To read the reports on prospects 31-40, click here.
30. RHP Rainy Lara
29. RHP Luis Mateo
28. OF Dustin Lawley
27. 3B Aderlin Rodriguez
26. OF Jared King
25. RHP Miller Diaz
24. RHP John Gant
23. 2B LJ Mazzilli
22. RHP Cory Mazzoni
21. RHP Tyler Bashlor
For the reports on prospects 21-30, click here.
20. RHP Matt Bowman
19. RHP Robert Gsellman
18. OF Cory Vaughn
17. LHP Jack Leathersich
16. RHP Rob Whalen
For reports on prospects 16-20, click here.
15. RHP Chris Flexen
14. RHP Michael Fulmer
13. RHP Gabriel Ynoa
12. SS Gavin Cecchini

11. INF Dilson Herrera
For the article on prospects 11-15, click here.
10. RHP Domingo Tapia
9. 1B Jayce Boyd
8. SS Amed Rosario
7. C Kevin Plawecki
6. OF Brandon Nimmo
For the article on prospects 6-10, click here.

5. Steven Matz - LHP

Ward Melville HS (NY) - 2nd Round of the 2009 Draft

Opening Day Age: 22

Projected Opening Day Assignment: High-A St. Lucie

General Numbers: gave up just 4.1 hits/start in 2013 (A-ball Savannah)

Relevant Numbers: yet to reach 140 innings in his career

Positives: After two years of rehab, Steven Matz has resurfaced as a prized prospect. The lefty from Long Island registered a full-season-player best 2.62 ERA over 21 starts for Savannah. His emergence in 2013 goes beyond the numbers, as his fastball has returned to the mid-90s. His curveball and changeup are weapons and he’s working on a slider which should help him against lefties (LH batters had more success than righties). His motion is smooth and repeatable and his command was great. I’ll be the first to call Matz a top-5 prospect, and I think that’s where he belongs.

Negatives: Durability and experience are major questions. With only 27 minor league games under his belt, the Ward Melville standout will be the least experienced player of anyone in the Florida State League. The Mets will continue to monitor his innings closely, and it’ll take a while to build up his season-long stamina.

Style: Cliff Lee

Across the John Preseason Rank: 19

ATJ Midseason Rank: 34

Jonathan Mayo Top 20: Not Ranked

Keith Law Top 10: Not Ranked

FanGraphs Rank: 8

Baseball America Top 10: Not Ranked

4. Dominic Smith - 1B

Serra HS (CA) - 1st Round of the 2013 Draft (11th Overall)

Opening Day Age: 18

Projected Opening Day Assignment: Extended Spring Training

General Numbers: .837 professional OPS straight out of high school (GCL and R-Kingsport)

Relevant Numbers: too early for these

Positives: Smith is a pure hitter - the best of the 2013 draft class according to some. It all comes naturally to him. His swing is as pretty as it gets and that may not even be his strongest tool. Scouts have already said he could become the best defensive first baseman in the game. It’s all way too premature, the kid is 18, but the hype will grab your attention. His hands and bat speed are noticeable, and many see him as the top position-player prospect in the system.

Negatives: TBD

Style: Ryan Howard (better defense and less power)

Across the John Preseason Rank: Not in the system

ATJ Midseason Rank: 14

Jonathan Mayo Rank: 7

Keith Law Rank: 3 (37th in baseball)

FanGraphs Rank: 3

Baseball America Rank: 4

3. Rafael Montero - RHP

Higuerito, Dominican Republic - Signed as International Free Agent

Opening Day Age: 23

Projected Opening Day Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

General Numbers: 3rd straight year with a sub-2.80 ERA

Relevant Numbers: 85 hits in 88 IPs in the hitter-friendly PCL

Positives: Rafael can locate better than anyone. His control has gotten him this far, but its been his velocity to improve and take him up the prospect lists. He hit 96 at the Futures Game in 2013, and his changeup is as good as it gets. MILB.com’s Sam Dykstra called him the most underrated prospect in baseball. http://milbprospective.mlblogs.com/2014/01/24/rounding-the-bases-top-100-talk/

The other positive is that he’s weeks away from making his Major League debut. I’d bet he beats Syndergaard and deGrom to Flushing in 2014.

Negatives: He’s only played three years in the Minors and has never had more Ks than innings pitched in any of those three years, leaving some worried that he’ll be hittable in the Majors.

Comparison: Jordan Zimmermann (without the breaking ball)

Across the John Preseason Rank: 6

ATJ Midseason Rank: 6

Jonathan Mayo Rank: 3 (85th in baseball)

Keith Law Rank: 4 (60th in baseball)

FanGraphs Rank: 5

Baseball America Rank: 3

2. Cesar Puello - OF

La Romana, Dominican Republic - Signed as International Free Agent

Opening Day Age: 23

Projected Opening Day Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

General Numbers: 39 XBH in 91 games (Double-A Binghamton)

Relevant Numbers: raised his average 66 points to .326 in 2013

Positives: No one has Cesar Puello ranked this high, but the guy is as close to a 5-tool player as anyone the Mets have. In a season overshadowed by his PED suspension, Puello had a breakout campaign in 2013, turning his elite tools into on-field dominance. Registering an OPS of .950, Puello was on his way to a 20 HR and 30 SB season before the suspension. He’s built like a truck, and Baseball America has tabbed his outfield arm the best in the system each of the past two years. For a team desperate for outfielders, people have consistently overlooked the best position player prospect in Puello.

Negatives: He took drugs, that’s never good. But Biogenesis is gone now, and hopefully Cesar is the same player while clean.

Style: Yasiel Puig (yes, Yasiel Puig)

Across the John Preseason Rank: 9

ATJ Midseason Rank: 2

Jonathan Mayo Top 20: 6

Keith Law Rank: 9

FanGraphs Top 15: Not Ranked

Baseball America Top 10: Not Ranked

1. Noah Syndergaard - RHP

Legacy HS (TX) - 1st Round of the 2010 Draft (38th Overall)

Opening Day Age: 21

Projected Opening Day Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

General Numbers: did not allow a run in 3 of his last 4 starts (Double-A Binghamton)

Relevant Numbers: 133 Ks, 28 walks in 117 innings

Positives: Where do you even begin? He’s 6-6, 230, throws 98 miles an hour, knows how to pitch, and has the attitude to boot. He’s athletic and has three plus-pitches. A mid-to-upper 90s fastball with sink, a mid-80s change and a h-h-hammer that leaves hitters screwing themselves into the ground. He’s smart, competitive and knows what it takes to be the best. The consensus is that he’ll be up mid-season, some time around July. Get used to saying Harvey-Wheeler-Syndergaard, because that’ll be the front three for at least four years.

Negatives: 2013 was the first time Noah made over 20 starts, and so his innings could be limited the next two seasons.

Comparison: Chris Tillman (but better)

Across the John Preseason Rank: 3

ATJ Midseason Rank: 3

Jonathan Mayo Rank: 1 (11th in baseball)

Keith Law Rank: 1 (24th in baseball)

FanGraphs Rank: 1

Baseball America Rank: 1

Ten Best Starting Pitchers of 2012

    Starting pitching is easily the biggest strength in the Mets' system this year, so picking the ten best starters was a challenge. But this list includes 10 pitchers that simply dominated the competition.

   *ONLY INCLUDES PITCHERS WHO WILL BE RETURNING IN 2013*

10. Michael Fulmer

Michael Fulmer’s April assignment to full-season Savannah in his first full professional campaign raised some eyebrows, and Fulmer proved his worth immediately.

Just one year removed from high school, Michael went 7-6 with an ERA of 2.74, posting a K/BB ratio of close to three and striking out batter a batter per inning.

Fulmer hit his stride in the dog days of summer, giving up just nine earned runs in eight starts in June and July. That’s good for a 1.71 ERA over those two months.

The first-round pick out of Oklahoma is likely to begin 2013 in St. Lucie as he continues his ascent through the system as a top prospect. 

Michael Fulmer

9. Steven Matz

Three years after being drafted in the first round in 2009 and one Tommy John surgery later, Steven Matz made his professional debut at age 21 this June.

Matz indeed looked like a 21-year-old first round pick, dominating the teenagers that populate Appalachian League.

The lefty from Long Island led every starting pitcher in the entire Mets organization in H/9 and K/9 if you make him eligible having only pitched 29 innings.

In six starts, Matz gave up just 16 hits. Yes, that would be less than three hits per start. Opponents batted just .158 against him.

The sample size is small, but the results are extremely promising. After two years of rehab, the Ward Melville H.S. grad has his velocity back up into the mid-90s.

While many experts may wait to see his 2013 season before calling Matz a prospect again, I will not hesitate to put him on my list.

Steven Matz

8. Jacob DeGrom

While we’re on the topic of Tommy John rehab, I introduce Jacob DeGrom. DeGrom missed a year and a half while recovering from his elbow surgery, only to return to the Minors with a bang.

The lanky righty from Stetson took a perfect game into the fifth inning in his 2012 season debut, allowing only one hit over six and two-thirds.

Jacob proceeded to dominate the South Atlantic League, going 6-3 with a 2.51 ERA over 15 starts before being promoted to High-A St. Lucie.

DeGrom had his way at the next level, too. He allowed just five runs in four starts, pitching in his home state of Florida.

DeGrom’s arm has been called the most talented outside of Queens. His 6-foot-4 inch frame and mid-90s fastball should serve him well as he continues to improve his slider and changeup.

As debilitating as Tommy John surgery is supposed to be, both Matz and DeGrom have not just recovered nicely, they’ve come back as better pitchers with even more velocity.

7. Rafael Montero

Talk about late bloomers, Rafael Montero signed with the Mets as an international free agent in in 2011 at 21-years-old and is already approaching Double-A in just his second professional season.

The man dominated A-ball with his devastating changeup and pinpoint control, allowing just 19 walks in 122 innings between Savannah and St. Lucie. That’s an unheralded 1.40 BB/9 rate.

He didn’t give up many hits either, with a H/9 rate of 7.08. All that equates to is the best ERA and WHIP of any full-season Mets starter.

With his breakout season in 2012, Montero has surfaced in the top-10 of almost every Mets prospect list, and could continue to progress quickly because of his advanced arsenal.

Rafael Montero

6. Matt Harvey

We all saw what Matt Harvey did at the Major League level, making some very capable sluggers look foolish on his way to an ERA of 2.73 in his rookie season.

Matt’s AAA numbers weren’t as good, but when you consider that he led the entire system in strikeouts and posted a K/9 rate of close to 10, Harvey was extremely effective.

His fastball touched 98 and lived in the mid-90s con\sistently. If he continues to work on his changeup and can continue to snap off those knee-buckling hooks, there’s no reason the U.N.C. grad can’t be a perennial All-Star.

Matt Harvey

5. Gabriel Ynoa

The 19-year-old Dominican dazzled the New York-Penn League in 2012. He pumps the zone with a low-90s fastball and lives on the corners.

He’s a true strike-thrower who was still able to maintain a WHIP below one and only give up 61 hits in 76 and two-thirds innings. So you know his stuff is good.

The key for Gabriel is his advanced changeup, which he disguises well to keep hitters off-balanced. His frame should allow for him to grow as a pitcher and athlete.

When you consider that he’s just 19-years old, weighs only 158 pounds and already shows great command at the professional level, Ynoa could become a front-line prospect within the next couple years.

4. Zack Wheeler

When it comes to effectiveness and the raw ability to make hitters miss, it’s hard to top super-prospect Zack Wheeler.

His ERA numbers won’t jump out at you like the other guys on this list, but Wheeler’s 3.27 mark in his first battle with AAA is strong.

Wheeler’s stuff left AA hitters overmatched early in the year before being promoted to AAA-Buffalo in early August, right after Matt Harvey reached the Bigs.

His numbers held consistent in Triple-A, striking out 31 batters in 33 innings and finishing the season strong with a 2-hit outing against Lehigh Valley, the Phillies’ affiliate.

If Wheeler can get his walk rate down (3.56 BB/9) and overflow the strike zone, his stuff is good enough to induce weak contact and get him even deeper into games.

Zack Wheeler

3. Luis Mateo

Like Ynoa, Luis Mateo was equally as dominant in all statistical categories. The one column Mateo proved superior was in strikeouts. He utilized his mid-90s fastball and devastating slider to post a 10.44 K/9 ratio, the best of any Mets pitcher to throw at least 30 innings.

Baseball America projects Mateo as a potential Major League closer down the road. His high velocity and two-pitch prominence may just fit that mold.

I’m interested to see how long the Mets keep Mateo as a starter, considering they have the pleasant problem of having too many starting pitchers worthy of a rotation spot coming into 2013.

2. Hansel Robles

Robles found success at every level in his four-year Minor League career, but no season was more fruitful than 2012.

He headed up a staff of Latinos that opened up a can of you-know-what on the NYPL. Two others also made the top five of this list.

Robles’ numbers are a thing of beauty: 72.2 IP, 47 hits allowed, a 6-1 record, an ERA of 1.11, an opponent average of .184.

He led the league in ERA and opponent’s average and has turned his smaller frame into an advantage, firing off of a strong base with sound mechanics. He has a full arsenal of weapons and could progress quickly as a reliever.

1. Jon Niese

Niese made major strides in 2012, asserting himself as a front-end of the rotation pitcher. He had career highs in WHIP (1.17), ERA (3.40), innings (190), strikeouts (155) and wins (13).

The low WHIP and development of his cutter allowed Niese to get deep into games. He gave up just 8.2 hits per nine innings and has induced weaker and weaker contact each season.

My favorite stat about Niese is that he pitched at least six innings in his final 20 starts of 2012. He would have easily broke 200 innings had the Mets stuck with a 5-man rotation.

If Niese can carry over his success into 2013, he could be among the league leaders in innings pitched, proving to be a true work horse.

With R.A. Dickey gone, I think it’s safe to say that Jonathon Niese is not only the most productive pitcher from 2012, but the best pitcher in the Mets organization.

The Best Pitcher in the System Returning in 2013