Why the Mets should pursue Gerardo Parra

by John Vittas (@JohnVittas3)

While many Mets fans are clamoring for the return of Yoenis Cespedes, let's not kid ourselves - it's probably not going to happen. As nice as it would be to have him in the cleanup spot for 162 games, that's not the Mets philosophy, which Joel Sherman so astutely laid out in this article. They're going for depth, trying to put together a roster of 13 proven, versatile Major League position players.
Between the Michael Cuddyer retirement and the team not signing Cespedes or Ben Zobrist, it stands to reason that the Flushing front office has payroll to play with, leaving them a variety of mid-tier free agent options to fill holes in the outfield and bullpen.

Juan Lagares has struggled against right-handed pitching
throughout his career.
(Photo: Jim McIsaac)

Let me be clear, I am a Juan Lagares believer. I think he's a tremendous athlete with a sustainable, line-drive swing plane that will produce a .280 average for the next 10 years. I also think Michael Conforto has a slump-proof swing and will bat .300 with 25 homers this year. So if it were up to me, I'd run them out there 162 times and drop free agent money on a better fifth starter (there's just so many this year, might as well get one for insurance) and the back end of the bullpen. 
But the Mets insist that they need a left-handed hitting platoon partner for Lagares, and when you look at his splits, you can understand why:


Juan Lagares     AVG / OBP / SLG (OPS)
2015 vs LHP       .273 / .333 / .438  (.771)
2015 vs RHP       .253 / .271 / .328  (.599)
          
Career vs LHP     .279 / .325 / .427  (.753)
Career vs RHP     .254 / .286 / .340  (.627)

Fortunately there are some affordable options in this year's free agent class.

Ideally, the Mets are looking for an outfielder who (1) handles right-handed pitching, (2) can play a capable defensive center field and (3) can play all three outfield positions.
Looking at the list of free agent outfielders, five players fit this description and played at a league-average level or better in 2015:

Denard Span, Gerardo Parra, Alejandro De Aza, Chris Denorfia, Will Venable

The problem with De Aza is that he's only played 17 games in center field over the past two seasons. In that span, he's suited up for four different teams, which means none of them thought he could play the position adequately.

Denard Span only managed to play 61 games in 2015.
(Photo: Mitchell Layton)

This logic can also be applied to Chris Denorfia, who played only 19 games in center across three different teams over the past two years. It can also be argued that his bounceback numbers in 2015 are the result of being in a stacked lineup in a hitter's park like Wrigley Field. If he ends up in Flushing, he'll be hitting in a similar environment to Petco Park and Safeco Field, where he posted an alarmingly low .602 OPS (on-base plus slugging %) in 2014.
Venable has been on a consistent decline over the past few years and let's face it, the Mets aren't looking for maybes. They went for Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker because they are as close to sure-things as you can get.
That premise would also eliminate Denard Span, who the Mets will reportedly be scouting during a private workout next month. While Span's speed, defense and track record could be appealing to the Mets' decision makers, the team is in the middle of their winning window. Is it worth it to count on a guy who could hardly stay on the field in 2015? Span battled constant core issues and a major hip injury, only managing to play 61 games this past season. While that may make him more affordable, do you want your biggest signing of the offseason to be an ailing, 32-year-old? I wouldn't.
That leads us to Gerardo Parra - who I attest will be the best option for New York to pursue.
Most importantly, his splits mirror Lagares', as Parra has always had much more success against righties:

Gerardo Parra       AVG / OBP / SLG  (OPS)
Career vs RHP        .289 / .335 / .432  (.767)
Career vs LHP        .232 / .296 / .302  (.597)

2015 vs RHP           .303 / .336 / .473  (.809)
2015 vs LHP           .238 / .296 / .362  (.658)

Presumably, almost all of his at bats in 2015 would be against right-handed pitching, so it isn't unreasonable to assume Parra will post an OPS around .800, which would be higher than Daniel Murphy's .770 mark from 2015. It's also significantly higher than .716, which is the mark set by Mets' centerfielders in 2015 (don't forget, Cespedes is included in that), and 200 points higher than the 2016 alternative of .599, which is what Juan Lagares posted against right-handers last year.

In addition to being the perfect compliment to Lagares, Parra checks the boxes that the other free agent options do not:

(1) Durability - Unlike Span, Parra has played at least 133 games each of the past six seasons.

Gerardo Parra only struck out 92 times in 155 games in 2015
(Photo: Mitchell Layton)

(2) Park Proof - Unlike Denorfia, Parra has thrived offensively in spacious outfields similar to Citi Field. He's a line-drive hitter who likes to find the gaps and leg out triples (he's hit 37 in his seven-year career) and could attack the right-center field gap at Citi Field, similar to what Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan did from 2009-2011.
His OPS figures in stadiums with massive outfields almost always out-perform his career baseline:

Career (988 Games): .730 OPS(On-Base plus Slugging %)
Sun Life Stadium/Marlins Park (15 Games): .866 OPS
Citi Field (21 Games): .844 OPS
Chase Field (385 Games): .768 OPS
Dodger Stadium (52 Games): .747 OPS
AT&T Park (48 Games): .738 OPS
Coors Field (48 Games): .725 OPS

(3) Versatility - Unlike De Aza, Parra has played 186 Major League games in center field, including 41 in 2015. He's not the defensive player that Juan Lagares or Denard Span is, but Parra's defensive metrics are similar across all three outfield positions, meaning you're not losing anything by putting him in center. Also, Parra has played over 350 games in each corner outfield spot and has more range than Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson, meaning he could serve as a valuable defensive replacement in games when he doesn't start. In other words, against lefties, the Mets would have one of the best fourth outfielders in baseball.

(4) Trending Up - Unlike Venable, Parra is just entering his prime. He posted career highs in home runs, slugging percentage, total bases, RBI and runs in 2015. His OPS of .780 was his second highest mark in seven MLB seasons, and would have ranked third amongst Mets players with at least 300 plate appearances in 2015. His 14 stolen bases would have led the team.

Sounds pretty good, right? The only conceivable knock on Parra could be his cost. After all, he's only 28 years old and you can be sure his agent is making a similar case to the one you just read.
But considering the market and who Parra is competing against (Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon, Justin Upton, Dexter Fowler, etc), it's reasonable to think he could end up being a bargain. If the premiere players are struggling to get what they want this late in the offseason, what makes you think a complimentary player like Parra is going to get what he's looking for? If Cespedes, Gordon and Upton are begging for $100 million offers, it's not off-base to estimate that something like a three year contract for no more than $40 million could be enough to land Parra.

I get it, $13 million a year for a part-time player sounds absurd, but think about how much stronger it makes the roster. The Mets would be maximizing the performance of Lagares and Parra, and providing a capable alternative should Granderson or Conforto go down.
It's similar to the Zobrist argument - Parra's versatility make him a perfect fit on any team, whether it be the 2016-2017 Mets of Conforto/Lagares/Granderson, or the 2018-2019 Mets of Conforto/Lagares/Nimmo. He's the kind of player that fits any roster and makes your team substantially better.

So do it, New York. Go get Gerardo Parra.

Five Bold Moves the Mets Should Make this Offseason

by John Vittas

1. Sign a Big-Time Outfielder

This is obvious. A legit power-hitting corner outfielder has been a glaring need ever since Jason Bay signed that wretched contract. The only two Mets outfielders worthy of the Major Leagues in my opinion are Eric Young and Juan Lagares. Both are speedsters. Therefore, New York needs a power guy to bat fourth and protect David Wright.

Fortunately, there are some options in the free agent market. Unfortunately, they will cost a pretty penny. There are now six free agent outfielders that hit 20 home runs this year: Shin-Soo Choo, Marlon Byrd, Coco Crisp, Carlos Beltran, Nelson Cruz and Raul Ibanez.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Curtis Granderson are also out there.

It makes sense to stay away from Beltran and Ibanez based on age. Ellsbury is likely to re-sign with Boston. Bringing in Byrd, Crisp, Granderson or Cruz wouldn’t cost as much, and the Mets get what they want, home runs. However, Cruz and Byrd are convicted drug users, Crisp has only performed in Oakland, and Granderson, well he’s a Yankee.

Therefore, Shin-Soo Choo makes the most sense.

Choo has stayed on the field and been a consistent hitter throughout his career. The Korean is a career .289 hitter and has stolen 20 bases or more in four of the past five seasons. But the reason Sandy Alderson has targeted Choo is his .423 on-base percentage this year. The guy gets on base more than anyone in the NL besides his teammate and fellow walking machine, Joey Votto. When you factor in his 57 extra-base-hits this season, Choo is the full package.

Shin-Soo Choo (photo: zimbio.com)

No matter who it is, the Mets need to bring in one of the players listed above. If not two.

2. Trade for Troy Tulowitzki

Troy Tulowitzki (photo: Dwayne McDonald)

Yes, this is going to require the surrendering of several good prospects. Yes, the Mets would owe Tulowitzki 134 million dollars over seven years. But, the offense Tulowitzki provides at the shortstop position is hard to come by, not only for the Mets, but for the whole sport. The open wound inflicted by Jose Reyes’ departure has yet to heal, and what better bandage than the best offensive shortstop in the game?

Also, the free agent pool for shortstops doesn’t tickle many fancies. Jhonny Peralta, Yunel Escobar and Stephen Drew highlight the list of unimpressive options. Escobar and Drew both hit under .260 and Peralta is coming off a drug suspension. Not to mention the price will likely be high for all three.

So instead of overpaying for a stopgap, past-his-prime infielder, why not land the biggest fish of all? On September 23, Metsblog.com asked fans if they would give up Rafael Montero, Travis d’Arnaud and Dillon Gee for Tulowitzki. 58% said yes.

While parting with d’Arnaud would be difficult, Gee and Montero are certainly replaceable with the depth the Mets have at starting pitcher. It makes for a good debate.

3. Give Daniel Murphy a 3-year contract

For a team that has lacked consistent, Major League bats, Daniel Murphy is one of two exceptions (the other being David Wright). Regardless of how high you are on Mets’ infield prospects (particularly Wilmer Flores), it's wise to go with the sure bet, and none is safer than Daniel Murphy. The guy can hit. If you disagree with that, go follow a different sport.

Let’s put his production into perspective. He finished second in the National League in hits this year (higher than Votto, McCutchen, Goldschmidt, Molina, or either Gonzalez). Murphy ranked in the top-10 in runs scored, doubles and total bases. He’s started more games than any other Met in the past four years, and is a career .290 hitter. The numbers speak for themselves.

Daniel Murphy (photo: Joe Janish - metstoday.com)

Murphy is under team control for two more years, but will earn what he’s worth in arbitration. So why not show him some love and lock him up for three more years? It shouldn’t take more than 35 million or so, and you get yourself a winner and a guaranteed 180 hits.

4. Trade away Wilmer Flores

I’m a big believer in keeping all the Big League bats on a roster, regardless of positional issues. However, Flores just doesn’t fit with the Mets. The only two positions he can play are occupied by the only two Major League bats the team has (Wright and Murphy).

Wilmer’s debut was disappointing, and he couldn’t even get consistent starts with David Wright on the DL. When’s he going to play when Wright is healthy? Additionally, Flores is just plain unathletic. His catching and throwing skills are fine, but it hurts to watch someone trip over a base and sprain their ankle.

I’m being a little harsh on Flores, I mean he’s only been in the Majors for a month. After all, I do think he will have a long career as a starter at this level. But the thing is, so do other teams. Therefore, his greatest value to the Mets is as trade bait. Whether they package him for a shortstop, outfielder or pitcher, Flores plus a young arm can yield noteworthy returns.

Wilmer Flores (photo: Jason Lempert - Bleacher Report)

5. Cut Ike Davis

No one was a bigger Ike Davis fan than me. I bought his jersey, looked to him for hope, and thought he would be slugging homers for a long time. But I think it’s time to cut him loose.

Maybe he heads out west and finds himself. But the bottom line is, the Mets have better, less expensive offensive options at first base in Josh Satin and Lucas Duda. It’s just the nature of the game. Satin batted .280 this year, while Davis labored to the Mendoza line. Who would you rather have?

Besides, if Satin or Duda don’t cut it, the Mets can sign a guy like Lyle Overbay to a cheap one-year deal and get more offense than they would from Davis.

Ike Davis (photo: Will Leitch - nymag.com)

Coming Soon on Across the John!

As the 2013 baseball season wraps up, Across the John will be debuting a series of content-laden Mets and MLB articles once again. Here's the lineup:

Tuesday, October 1

Five Bold Moves the Mets Should Make this Offseason

Tuesday, October 8

10 Biggest Surprises of the 2013 Mets Season

Last Year's List

No one expected the season Marlon Byrd had for the Mets

Tuesday, October 15

10 Biggest Disappointments of the 2013 Mets Season

Last Year's List

Tuesday, October 22

10 Biggest Minor League Storylines of the 2013 Mets

Tuesday, October 29

10 Breakout Performers in the Major Leagues in 2013

Jose Fernandez came out of nowhere to take the league by storm before his 21st birthday.

Tuesday, November 5

Prospect Preview: Superlatives and 2013 Ups & Downs

Preseason Rankings

Mid-Season Rakings

***OFFICIAL UNVEILING - 2013 METS PROSPECT RANKINGS (1-40) ***

Tuesday, November 12 - No. 31-40
Tuesday, November 19 - No. 21-30
Tuesday, November 26 - No. 11-20
Tuesday, December 3 - No. 1-10

Noah Syndergaard headlines a list of impressive Mets prospects