Why the Mets should pursue Gerardo Parra

by John Vittas (@JohnVittas3)

While many Mets fans are clamoring for the return of Yoenis Cespedes, let's not kid ourselves - it's probably not going to happen. As nice as it would be to have him in the cleanup spot for 162 games, that's not the Mets philosophy, which Joel Sherman so astutely laid out in this article. They're going for depth, trying to put together a roster of 13 proven, versatile Major League position players.
Between the Michael Cuddyer retirement and the team not signing Cespedes or Ben Zobrist, it stands to reason that the Flushing front office has payroll to play with, leaving them a variety of mid-tier free agent options to fill holes in the outfield and bullpen.

Juan Lagares has struggled against right-handed pitching
throughout his career.
(Photo: Jim McIsaac)

Let me be clear, I am a Juan Lagares believer. I think he's a tremendous athlete with a sustainable, line-drive swing plane that will produce a .280 average for the next 10 years. I also think Michael Conforto has a slump-proof swing and will bat .300 with 25 homers this year. So if it were up to me, I'd run them out there 162 times and drop free agent money on a better fifth starter (there's just so many this year, might as well get one for insurance) and the back end of the bullpen. 
But the Mets insist that they need a left-handed hitting platoon partner for Lagares, and when you look at his splits, you can understand why:


Juan Lagares     AVG / OBP / SLG (OPS)
2015 vs LHP       .273 / .333 / .438  (.771)
2015 vs RHP       .253 / .271 / .328  (.599)
          
Career vs LHP     .279 / .325 / .427  (.753)
Career vs RHP     .254 / .286 / .340  (.627)

Fortunately there are some affordable options in this year's free agent class.

Ideally, the Mets are looking for an outfielder who (1) handles right-handed pitching, (2) can play a capable defensive center field and (3) can play all three outfield positions.
Looking at the list of free agent outfielders, five players fit this description and played at a league-average level or better in 2015:

Denard Span, Gerardo Parra, Alejandro De Aza, Chris Denorfia, Will Venable

The problem with De Aza is that he's only played 17 games in center field over the past two seasons. In that span, he's suited up for four different teams, which means none of them thought he could play the position adequately.

Denard Span only managed to play 61 games in 2015.
(Photo: Mitchell Layton)

This logic can also be applied to Chris Denorfia, who played only 19 games in center across three different teams over the past two years. It can also be argued that his bounceback numbers in 2015 are the result of being in a stacked lineup in a hitter's park like Wrigley Field. If he ends up in Flushing, he'll be hitting in a similar environment to Petco Park and Safeco Field, where he posted an alarmingly low .602 OPS (on-base plus slugging %) in 2014.
Venable has been on a consistent decline over the past few years and let's face it, the Mets aren't looking for maybes. They went for Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker because they are as close to sure-things as you can get.
That premise would also eliminate Denard Span, who the Mets will reportedly be scouting during a private workout next month. While Span's speed, defense and track record could be appealing to the Mets' decision makers, the team is in the middle of their winning window. Is it worth it to count on a guy who could hardly stay on the field in 2015? Span battled constant core issues and a major hip injury, only managing to play 61 games this past season. While that may make him more affordable, do you want your biggest signing of the offseason to be an ailing, 32-year-old? I wouldn't.
That leads us to Gerardo Parra - who I attest will be the best option for New York to pursue.
Most importantly, his splits mirror Lagares', as Parra has always had much more success against righties:

Gerardo Parra       AVG / OBP / SLG  (OPS)
Career vs RHP        .289 / .335 / .432  (.767)
Career vs LHP        .232 / .296 / .302  (.597)

2015 vs RHP           .303 / .336 / .473  (.809)
2015 vs LHP           .238 / .296 / .362  (.658)

Presumably, almost all of his at bats in 2015 would be against right-handed pitching, so it isn't unreasonable to assume Parra will post an OPS around .800, which would be higher than Daniel Murphy's .770 mark from 2015. It's also significantly higher than .716, which is the mark set by Mets' centerfielders in 2015 (don't forget, Cespedes is included in that), and 200 points higher than the 2016 alternative of .599, which is what Juan Lagares posted against right-handers last year.

In addition to being the perfect compliment to Lagares, Parra checks the boxes that the other free agent options do not:

(1) Durability - Unlike Span, Parra has played at least 133 games each of the past six seasons.

Gerardo Parra only struck out 92 times in 155 games in 2015
(Photo: Mitchell Layton)

(2) Park Proof - Unlike Denorfia, Parra has thrived offensively in spacious outfields similar to Citi Field. He's a line-drive hitter who likes to find the gaps and leg out triples (he's hit 37 in his seven-year career) and could attack the right-center field gap at Citi Field, similar to what Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan did from 2009-2011.
His OPS figures in stadiums with massive outfields almost always out-perform his career baseline:

Career (988 Games): .730 OPS(On-Base plus Slugging %)
Sun Life Stadium/Marlins Park (15 Games): .866 OPS
Citi Field (21 Games): .844 OPS
Chase Field (385 Games): .768 OPS
Dodger Stadium (52 Games): .747 OPS
AT&T Park (48 Games): .738 OPS
Coors Field (48 Games): .725 OPS

(3) Versatility - Unlike De Aza, Parra has played 186 Major League games in center field, including 41 in 2015. He's not the defensive player that Juan Lagares or Denard Span is, but Parra's defensive metrics are similar across all three outfield positions, meaning you're not losing anything by putting him in center. Also, Parra has played over 350 games in each corner outfield spot and has more range than Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson, meaning he could serve as a valuable defensive replacement in games when he doesn't start. In other words, against lefties, the Mets would have one of the best fourth outfielders in baseball.

(4) Trending Up - Unlike Venable, Parra is just entering his prime. He posted career highs in home runs, slugging percentage, total bases, RBI and runs in 2015. His OPS of .780 was his second highest mark in seven MLB seasons, and would have ranked third amongst Mets players with at least 300 plate appearances in 2015. His 14 stolen bases would have led the team.

Sounds pretty good, right? The only conceivable knock on Parra could be his cost. After all, he's only 28 years old and you can be sure his agent is making a similar case to the one you just read.
But considering the market and who Parra is competing against (Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon, Justin Upton, Dexter Fowler, etc), it's reasonable to think he could end up being a bargain. If the premiere players are struggling to get what they want this late in the offseason, what makes you think a complimentary player like Parra is going to get what he's looking for? If Cespedes, Gordon and Upton are begging for $100 million offers, it's not off-base to estimate that something like a three year contract for no more than $40 million could be enough to land Parra.

I get it, $13 million a year for a part-time player sounds absurd, but think about how much stronger it makes the roster. The Mets would be maximizing the performance of Lagares and Parra, and providing a capable alternative should Granderson or Conforto go down.
It's similar to the Zobrist argument - Parra's versatility make him a perfect fit on any team, whether it be the 2016-2017 Mets of Conforto/Lagares/Granderson, or the 2018-2019 Mets of Conforto/Lagares/Nimmo. He's the kind of player that fits any roster and makes your team substantially better.

So do it, New York. Go get Gerardo Parra.

Top 10 Breakout Performers in Baseball in 2013

by John Vittas

Many new stars emerged this season for baseball to market and fans to savor for years to come. In case you missed it, here’s the guys who made a name for themselves in 2013.

Honorable Mention: Shelby Miller, Marlon Byrd, Brandon Belt, Yu Darvish, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Travis Wood

10. Manny Machado

After a promising 51 games as a teenager in 2012, Manny Machado hit the ground running in his first full Major League season. Anchoring the hot corner in Baltimore, the Miami native racked up 189 hits (including 68 for extra bases) and a league-high 51 doubles. At an age where most kids are either in A-ball or college (20), Machado is already one of the most productive players in the Majors.

Photo: baltimoresportsreport.com

9. Chris Johnson

The former Astros farmhand went from an afterthought to a legitimate offensive threat in the span of one season. Johnson was neck-and-neck for the batting title all season long, and finished with a .321 mark, the highest of his career by a longshot.

8. Hisashi Iwakuma

After three years of trying to stick in America, Iwakuma accomplished that and then some in 2013. The former Tokohu Rakuten Golden Eagles star blossomed into an elite pitcher, earning the All Star title in his first full season in an MLB rotation. Both his 14 wins and 2.44 ERA exceed his superstar teammate, Felix Hernandez.

Photo: sportsillustrated.cnn.com

7. Domonic Brown

Domonic Brown had never batted above .242 in three Major League seasons, before dropping 27 bombs and raising his average 37 points in 2013. In a year marked by an aging Phillies team, it’s Brown that’s headed in the other direction.

6. Jean Segura

At just 23 years old, the Dominican shortstop racked up 173 hits in his first full Major League season. He was one stolen base away from leading the league and made the All Star team as a rookie. Segura will be a fixture on the Brewers infield for years to come, following a long line of Dominican shortstops.

5. Josh Donaldson

Probably the most shocking of any name on this list, the former Auburn Tiger finished top-10 in the A.L. in RBIs, SLG, OBP and OPS in 2013. Prior to 2013, Donaldson had struggled in his brief Major League stints and batted just .248 in two seasons of Triple-A.

4. Matt Carpenter

Speaking of a lot of hits in his first full MLB season, Matt Carpenter stroked 199 for St. Louis. After moving to second base in honor of David Freese, the former blue-chip prospect batted .318 in 2013, leading the Majors in hits.

Photo: usatoday.com

3. Jose Fernandez

Talk about the path less traveled, Jose Fernandez never threw a pitch in Double or Triple-A, but was still tabbed as the ace of the Miami staff heading into 2013. He did not disappoint. The Cuban fireballer gave up 111 hits and 172 innings (yeah, seriously) and as you would expect, finished with a WHIP below one. That 5.8 H/9 pace was the best in baseball. It’s safe to say he has NL Rookie of the Year on lock.

Photo: bleacherreport.com

2. Matt Harvey

Overshadowed by his recent Tommy John surgery, Matt Harvey’s 2013 was marked by stardom. Having allowed just three runs over his first four starts, Harvey and was off and running. He sustained his dominance throughout the summer, earning the All Star Game start on his home mound. Harvey would have been top-3 in strikeouts if not for the injury and still wound up third in the Majors in ERA.

1. Yasiel Puig

When the Dodgers signed Yasiel Puig to a seven-year, 42 million dollar deal in 2012, Baseball America called the deal “puzzling.” Well, now we all know why they did it.

Whether it’s his shocking speed or infuriating flair, Yasiel Puig will make you watch. And for 6 million per season? Whose puzzled now?

Photo: sports.yahoo.com

Maryland Draft Preview - The Juniors

by John Vittas, Jonathan Lewis & 2 others

Tim Kiene, 1B

JR      South Windsor, CT

The Report: Kiene battled injuries throughout the 2013 season and only played 8 games. With freshman LaMonte Wade taking a stranglehold on first base, it appears Kiene’s only chance to play next year is as the designated hitter, which won’t help his draft stock.

The Good: Kiene is a massive man with massive power. His swing is smooth and he almost always hits the ball hard. A .270 average in the Cape Cod League last year will encourage scouts to give him a chance.

The Bad: Kiene is average defensively and strikes out a lot. As mentioned above, his playing time is very much in question next year.

The Bottom Line: Tim is a typical power hitter with a world of potential but may have to transfer to find a position on the infield. If he gets picked, he’ll likely sign.

Photo: power-showcase.com

Prediction: With only 25 at bats this year, it stands to reason that Kiene will not even be considered. However, if scouts liked what they saw at the Cape last summer, they could take a chance on Kiene in the late rounds.

         Chances to get picked: 20-30%

Michael Montville, OF

JR      Portsmouth, NH

The Report: Montville won Gatorade Player of the Year in New Hampshire not once, but twice. So you know he’s a talent. But for now, a professional career is likely on hold as he missed most of the 2013 season with elbow problems, making just 10 starts.

The Good: Michael has legit power. He has a good frame (6-2 / 200) to be a corner outfielder and has the kind of bat you want from that position. He’s solid on defense too, featuring a plus arm.

The Bad: Montville has a big swing and strikes out way too much. He’ll need to develop a better two-strike approach.

The Bottom Line: Montville’s career average is in the .230’s. Shortening up to raise the average and striking out less is imperative for scouts to see him as a pro hitter.

Prediction: Michael has not yet played a full college season in his career, starting 76 games over three seasons. He’ll have to put it all together for a full season to have a chance. But if he does, his stock could skyrocket given his natural ability.

Ben Brewster, LHP

JR      Baltimore, MD

The Report: The results have always been positive for Ben Brewster. He has a unique delivery in which he slides his entire body at the plate before releasing the ball. He uses a three-quarters arm slot and essentially pitches from 55 feet because of his motion. With the unorthodoxed look and fastball velocity in the upper-80s, many hitters have a tough time catching up to his heater.

The Good: He stuck out nine batters in six innings and only allowed one earned run.

The Bad: He only pitched six innings.

The Bottom Line: Brewster has gradually bulked up over the past five years and progressively added velocity. He is a very intelligent young man and knows how to pitch, all of which was explained in this article published by DriveLineBaseball.com: http://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2011/03/05/interview-with-umd-pitcher-ben-brewster/

Prediction: Scouts really don’t know what he is, or whether his delivery is even legal. But if Brewster’s workload increases in 2014 and the good results continue, he’ll have a chance to go pro. He is a prototypical left-handed specialist at the next level.

         Chance to get picked this year: 0%

         Next Year: 10-30%

Blake Schmit, SS

JR      Eden Prairie, MN

The Report: Schmit is a defensive wizard. This panel unanimously names him the best defensive shortstop we’ve ever seen. The Minnesota native is a highlight reel waiting to happen every time he steps on the diamond. He has infinite range to either side, a good arm and is as athletic as any player in the country. Despite transferring from junior college, Schmit carried himself like he belonged right from day one, becoming the everyday shortstop.

The Good: Obviously his defense is what jumps out, but Blake can hit, too. He goes the other way when necessary and has some pop to the pull side. He’s still adjusting to the ACC level of pitching, but a .277 average in his first season at Maryland is awfully promising. Once he makes more consistent solid contact, he has the potential to hit for more power as well.

The Bad: Schmit had trouble catching up to hard fastballs at times.

The Bottom Line: Teams may wait to see him duplicate his first ACC season before giving him a chance. His ceiling is as high as anyone on the Terps roster as he has the ability to be a legitimate professional shortstop.

Prediction: Someone may try and steal him away from Maryland in the late rounds by paying him overslot, but chances are he’ll stay in College Park one more year and could be a blue-chip prospect this time next year.

         Chance to get picked: 20-30%

         Next year: 60-80%

To see what Schmit can do on defense, check out these videos: Schmit's Spectacular Playing JUCO in Iowa
Blake's Diving Catch against Miami in 2013

Schmit explains his decision to become a Terp

Chase Tokunaga, LHP

JR      Wailuku, HI

The Report: Tokunaga struggled in limited action after transferring to Maryland from Feather River College. With a fastball around 80 mph., he’ll have to rely on deception to have any success at the D-I level.

Jake Stinnett, RHP

JR      Vista, CA

The Report: Stinnett has more pro potential than anyone on the Maryland roster. He began the year as the team’s closer because of his big fastball and mental makeup, but was moved into the rotation mid-season. He blossomed as a starter and became one of the ACC’s best, lowering his ERA from 8.10 to 2.83 by season’s end. On top of his plus-stuff, Stinnett’s motion is extremely simple and easy to repeat. He has a good head on his shoulders too, posting a 4.47 cumulative GPA in high school.

The Good: Stinnett’s fastball-slider combo is pretty much Big League ready, with the heater touching 93 and a big power slider that’s proven to be unhittable at the college level. His command is always on-point and he pounds the strike zone, having walked only 24 batters in 63 innings. At 6-4, 202 pounds, his projectability is immense and many professional coaches would kill to get their hands on a talent like Stinnett.

The Bad: Stinnett has literally half a season of starting pitching under his belt in college. He was recruited to play infield and worked sparingly as a reliever in his first two years in College Park. He’s battled bouts with inconsistency too, having failed to reach the fourth inning in two of his starts this year.

Photo: diamondbackonline.com

The Bottom Line: Stinnett’s command and mental makeup should eliminate any concerns about his inexperience. His upside is tremendous, and scouts have taken notice in 2013. Even with all the freshman talent that has arrived in College Park, it was Stinnett who the scouts came out to see. He WILL be picked and could garner some high prospect grades once he’s there.

Prediction: Jake could drop because of his signability. He could certainly return to Maryland for one more year and anchor a strong but young staff in 2014, a la Jimmy Reed. Because of that, I bet MLB teams stay away from him in the early rounds and pick him in the rounds 8-16 region. But if he was a senior this year, he could go as early as round 3.

                  100% Chance to Get Picked

                  Rounds 5-20

Jamie Pashuck, LHP

JR      Christiana, PA

The Report: Pashuck has had success over the past two years as a reliever. With a repertoire that lacks ACC-caliber stuff, it’ll be difficult to for him to attract professional attention. But if his workload increases next year and he continues to get outs, you never know.

Brady Kirkpatrick, RHP

JR      Eugene, OR

The Report: Kirkpatrick has had a roller coaster career at Maryland, as his performance has wavered from legitimate ace to last in the pecking order of relievers. His stuff remains solid, with his success reliant upon his ability to locate. His fastball is 87-88 and he throws a curveball and changeup as well.

The Good: When he’s on, Kirkpatrick rolls. He’s at his best when pitching to contact and pounding the perimeter of the zone, which keeps his pitch count very low. When he’s on, he can throw all three pitches for strikes and controls the pace of the game. Also, Brady’s motion is extremely repeatable and his mechanics never seem to be an issue. He is even-keeled on the mound and many young pitchers on the staff look up to him as a role model.

The Bad: Kirkpatrick has floundered in the final few weeks of the season each of the past two years, which raises questions about his durability and focus. His results didn’t just decline, they plummeted as he failed to reach the third inning of his starts before moving to the bullpen, where he battled bouts of wildness.

Photo: marylandfb.blogspot.com

The Bottom Line: When he has all three pitches working, he’s one of the most effective pitchers in the conference and can be an absolute innings eater. However, Kirkpatrick will need to find some consistency before any team considers him.

Prediction: None of Kirkpatrick’s pitches would be considered plus-offerings in the pro ranks, so the results will need to be there in order for a club to give him a chance.

         Chance to get picked this year: 0%

         Next Year: 5-10%

Kyle Convissar, 2B

JR      Severna Park, MD

The Report: Convissar is a consummate professional with one of the best brains in the game. A perennial all-academic performer, the Severna Park native has the methodical style of hitting you’d expect from such an intelligent individual. His .325/.427/.427 line is one of the best in the ACC. He is a very complete hitter and has improved his numbers in each of his three years in College Park.

The Good: Convissar sprays the ball to all fields with authority. He takes the ball where it’s pitched and never tries to do too much. He’s a tough out every time up: he works the count, fouls off innumerable pitches and is very tough to strike out. He has some pop too, stoking 13 extra-base-hits this season and several doubles off the wall.

The Bad: Convissar doesn’t really have a position. He’s played exclusively second base with the Terps and done so adequately. However, he is a bigger body and only average athletically, so he may project better at third base or a corner outfield spot. His arm is good enough to play any of those positions.

Photo: diamondbackonline.com

The Bottom Line: Convissar’s production and intangibles are good enough to be a pro right now. However, his herky-jerky style of play may scare some scouts away.

Prediction:  Kyle can be a doubles machine at the next level. He has proven he can hit the finest pitching, and combined with his baseball IQ, he should get a chance, even if it’s not this year.

         Chances to get picked: 50-60%

         This year: 30-40%