Maryland Draft Preview - The Juniors

by John Vittas, Jonathan Lewis & 2 others

Tim Kiene, 1B

JR      South Windsor, CT

The Report: Kiene battled injuries throughout the 2013 season and only played 8 games. With freshman LaMonte Wade taking a stranglehold on first base, it appears Kiene’s only chance to play next year is as the designated hitter, which won’t help his draft stock.

The Good: Kiene is a massive man with massive power. His swing is smooth and he almost always hits the ball hard. A .270 average in the Cape Cod League last year will encourage scouts to give him a chance.

The Bad: Kiene is average defensively and strikes out a lot. As mentioned above, his playing time is very much in question next year.

The Bottom Line: Tim is a typical power hitter with a world of potential but may have to transfer to find a position on the infield. If he gets picked, he’ll likely sign.

Photo: power-showcase.com

Prediction: With only 25 at bats this year, it stands to reason that Kiene will not even be considered. However, if scouts liked what they saw at the Cape last summer, they could take a chance on Kiene in the late rounds.

         Chances to get picked: 20-30%

Michael Montville, OF

JR      Portsmouth, NH

The Report: Montville won Gatorade Player of the Year in New Hampshire not once, but twice. So you know he’s a talent. But for now, a professional career is likely on hold as he missed most of the 2013 season with elbow problems, making just 10 starts.

The Good: Michael has legit power. He has a good frame (6-2 / 200) to be a corner outfielder and has the kind of bat you want from that position. He’s solid on defense too, featuring a plus arm.

The Bad: Montville has a big swing and strikes out way too much. He’ll need to develop a better two-strike approach.

The Bottom Line: Montville’s career average is in the .230’s. Shortening up to raise the average and striking out less is imperative for scouts to see him as a pro hitter.

Prediction: Michael has not yet played a full college season in his career, starting 76 games over three seasons. He’ll have to put it all together for a full season to have a chance. But if he does, his stock could skyrocket given his natural ability.

Ben Brewster, LHP

JR      Baltimore, MD

The Report: The results have always been positive for Ben Brewster. He has a unique delivery in which he slides his entire body at the plate before releasing the ball. He uses a three-quarters arm slot and essentially pitches from 55 feet because of his motion. With the unorthodoxed look and fastball velocity in the upper-80s, many hitters have a tough time catching up to his heater.

The Good: He stuck out nine batters in six innings and only allowed one earned run.

The Bad: He only pitched six innings.

The Bottom Line: Brewster has gradually bulked up over the past five years and progressively added velocity. He is a very intelligent young man and knows how to pitch, all of which was explained in this article published by DriveLineBaseball.com: http://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2011/03/05/interview-with-umd-pitcher-ben-brewster/

Prediction: Scouts really don’t know what he is, or whether his delivery is even legal. But if Brewster’s workload increases in 2014 and the good results continue, he’ll have a chance to go pro. He is a prototypical left-handed specialist at the next level.

         Chance to get picked this year: 0%

         Next Year: 10-30%

Blake Schmit, SS

JR      Eden Prairie, MN

The Report: Schmit is a defensive wizard. This panel unanimously names him the best defensive shortstop we’ve ever seen. The Minnesota native is a highlight reel waiting to happen every time he steps on the diamond. He has infinite range to either side, a good arm and is as athletic as any player in the country. Despite transferring from junior college, Schmit carried himself like he belonged right from day one, becoming the everyday shortstop.

The Good: Obviously his defense is what jumps out, but Blake can hit, too. He goes the other way when necessary and has some pop to the pull side. He’s still adjusting to the ACC level of pitching, but a .277 average in his first season at Maryland is awfully promising. Once he makes more consistent solid contact, he has the potential to hit for more power as well.

The Bad: Schmit had trouble catching up to hard fastballs at times.

The Bottom Line: Teams may wait to see him duplicate his first ACC season before giving him a chance. His ceiling is as high as anyone on the Terps roster as he has the ability to be a legitimate professional shortstop.

Prediction: Someone may try and steal him away from Maryland in the late rounds by paying him overslot, but chances are he’ll stay in College Park one more year and could be a blue-chip prospect this time next year.

         Chance to get picked: 20-30%

         Next year: 60-80%

To see what Schmit can do on defense, check out these videos: Schmit's Spectacular Playing JUCO in Iowa
Blake's Diving Catch against Miami in 2013

Schmit explains his decision to become a Terp

Chase Tokunaga, LHP

JR      Wailuku, HI

The Report: Tokunaga struggled in limited action after transferring to Maryland from Feather River College. With a fastball around 80 mph., he’ll have to rely on deception to have any success at the D-I level.

Jake Stinnett, RHP

JR      Vista, CA

The Report: Stinnett has more pro potential than anyone on the Maryland roster. He began the year as the team’s closer because of his big fastball and mental makeup, but was moved into the rotation mid-season. He blossomed as a starter and became one of the ACC’s best, lowering his ERA from 8.10 to 2.83 by season’s end. On top of his plus-stuff, Stinnett’s motion is extremely simple and easy to repeat. He has a good head on his shoulders too, posting a 4.47 cumulative GPA in high school.

The Good: Stinnett’s fastball-slider combo is pretty much Big League ready, with the heater touching 93 and a big power slider that’s proven to be unhittable at the college level. His command is always on-point and he pounds the strike zone, having walked only 24 batters in 63 innings. At 6-4, 202 pounds, his projectability is immense and many professional coaches would kill to get their hands on a talent like Stinnett.

The Bad: Stinnett has literally half a season of starting pitching under his belt in college. He was recruited to play infield and worked sparingly as a reliever in his first two years in College Park. He’s battled bouts with inconsistency too, having failed to reach the fourth inning in two of his starts this year.

Photo: diamondbackonline.com

The Bottom Line: Stinnett’s command and mental makeup should eliminate any concerns about his inexperience. His upside is tremendous, and scouts have taken notice in 2013. Even with all the freshman talent that has arrived in College Park, it was Stinnett who the scouts came out to see. He WILL be picked and could garner some high prospect grades once he’s there.

Prediction: Jake could drop because of his signability. He could certainly return to Maryland for one more year and anchor a strong but young staff in 2014, a la Jimmy Reed. Because of that, I bet MLB teams stay away from him in the early rounds and pick him in the rounds 8-16 region. But if he was a senior this year, he could go as early as round 3.

                  100% Chance to Get Picked

                  Rounds 5-20

Jamie Pashuck, LHP

JR      Christiana, PA

The Report: Pashuck has had success over the past two years as a reliever. With a repertoire that lacks ACC-caliber stuff, it’ll be difficult to for him to attract professional attention. But if his workload increases next year and he continues to get outs, you never know.

Brady Kirkpatrick, RHP

JR      Eugene, OR

The Report: Kirkpatrick has had a roller coaster career at Maryland, as his performance has wavered from legitimate ace to last in the pecking order of relievers. His stuff remains solid, with his success reliant upon his ability to locate. His fastball is 87-88 and he throws a curveball and changeup as well.

The Good: When he’s on, Kirkpatrick rolls. He’s at his best when pitching to contact and pounding the perimeter of the zone, which keeps his pitch count very low. When he’s on, he can throw all three pitches for strikes and controls the pace of the game. Also, Brady’s motion is extremely repeatable and his mechanics never seem to be an issue. He is even-keeled on the mound and many young pitchers on the staff look up to him as a role model.

The Bad: Kirkpatrick has floundered in the final few weeks of the season each of the past two years, which raises questions about his durability and focus. His results didn’t just decline, they plummeted as he failed to reach the third inning of his starts before moving to the bullpen, where he battled bouts of wildness.

Photo: marylandfb.blogspot.com

The Bottom Line: When he has all three pitches working, he’s one of the most effective pitchers in the conference and can be an absolute innings eater. However, Kirkpatrick will need to find some consistency before any team considers him.

Prediction: None of Kirkpatrick’s pitches would be considered plus-offerings in the pro ranks, so the results will need to be there in order for a club to give him a chance.

         Chance to get picked this year: 0%

         Next Year: 5-10%

Kyle Convissar, 2B

JR      Severna Park, MD

The Report: Convissar is a consummate professional with one of the best brains in the game. A perennial all-academic performer, the Severna Park native has the methodical style of hitting you’d expect from such an intelligent individual. His .325/.427/.427 line is one of the best in the ACC. He is a very complete hitter and has improved his numbers in each of his three years in College Park.

The Good: Convissar sprays the ball to all fields with authority. He takes the ball where it’s pitched and never tries to do too much. He’s a tough out every time up: he works the count, fouls off innumerable pitches and is very tough to strike out. He has some pop too, stoking 13 extra-base-hits this season and several doubles off the wall.

The Bad: Convissar doesn’t really have a position. He’s played exclusively second base with the Terps and done so adequately. However, he is a bigger body and only average athletically, so he may project better at third base or a corner outfield spot. His arm is good enough to play any of those positions.

Photo: diamondbackonline.com

The Bottom Line: Convissar’s production and intangibles are good enough to be a pro right now. However, his herky-jerky style of play may scare some scouts away.

Prediction:  Kyle can be a doubles machine at the next level. He has proven he can hit the finest pitching, and combined with his baseball IQ, he should get a chance, even if it’s not this year.

         Chances to get picked: 50-60%

         This year: 30-40%

Top 10 Disappointments of the 2012 Mets Minor Leagues

by John Vittas

In what was a very successful year for the Mets Minor League teams, there were a few disappointments. From injuries, to lack of production, to unsigned draft picks, to entire lineups who failed to produce, here marks the disappointments of the Mets farm system in 2012:

10. The 2012 Draft and Signability

Many are already calling the 2011 draft one of the best in Mets history. But as of now, it doesn’t appear that Paul DePodesta and the Mets’ Minor League brain trust followed suit in 2012.

The Mets were only able to sign 19 of their 40 picks in 2012, losing 21 players to college commitments. By comparison, in 2011, they signed 37 of their 50 picks, including their top 12 selections and 19 of their top 20 picks. That’s a percentage drop-off from 74% down to 45% this year.

The biggest individual failure in the 2012 draft was the Mets inability to sign 2^nd round pick, Teddy Stankiewicz. The 6-foot-4-inch righty was projected to be a legitimate Major League starter, but instead opted to play college ball for Arkansas after the Mets’ offer wasn’t enough to woo him to the pros.

Another significant deficiency in the 2012 draft was that the team did not acquire a single left-handed pitcher, a commodity that the Big League club could certainly use at this point.

9. Pedro Zapata, OF

The prospect window is beginning to close on Pedro Zapata, who will be 25 years old on Opening Day. The tall Dominican has shown flashes of Major League potential in his six-year Minor League career, but struggled mightily in 2012, posting an OPS of just .543 in his first crack in Double-A.

Zapata’s main asset is his combination of size and speed. He stole 36 bases in back-to-back years in 2010 and 2011 and shows a very nice glove in the outfield.

It did take him two years to figure out rookie ball and the Florida State League, so the Mets will likely give him one more crack at Double-A before letting him loose.  Zapata batted .329 during his second season in Kingsport and .292 with 36 stolen bases in his second year with St. Lucie.  If he can duplicate that second-year success in Binghamton this season, Zapata could enter the discussion as the Mets’ fourth or fifth outfielder come 2014.

But long before that happens, Pedro must prove he can hit upper-level pitching, because all of his numbers were downright dreadful in 2012.

Pedro Zapata

8. Joe Tuschak, OF

Tuschak was considered a steal in the sixth round of the draft last year out of Pennsylvania’s Northern High School. Described as a “lottery ticket,” the Mets took a chance on the athletic centerfielder, but so far the returns have not been had.

Tuschak is hitting a lowly .197 in his first two years of rookie ball, clubbing just one home run in 78 career games between the Gulf Coast League in 2011 and Kingsport this season.

The other major issue is his strikeout rate. Tuschak fanned in 32.5% of his plate appearances this year, the third worst figure in the entire Mets organization.

He does walk a good amount, but the former high school quarterback has not been able to turn his elite athleticism into baseball success as of yet.

Joe Tuschak

7. Branden Kaupe, SS

It’s not often you hear of top draft picks coming from Hawaii, but Kaupe fits that description. A 4^th-round pick out of Baldwin High School in Wailuku this year, Kaupe’s play has matched his sketch, looking indeed like an 18-year-old who hasn’t yet been exposed to elite competition.

And that’s exactly what Kaupe was in the Appalachian League: exposed. Branden batted a frightening .173 with Kingsport, coupling his average with only two extra-base-hits in 133 at bats, adding up to a SLG% of .195. Yes, that’s his slugging percentage.

But the 5-foot-7 Kaupe is contact hitter, right? Well not exactly. He struck out in 25.7% of his plate appearances, 44 times in 50 games.

Kaupe is clearly extremely young and extremely raw, so it’s probably best to disregard the numbers from his first pro season and let him work to get better.  On the bright side, he possesses blazing speed, good plate discipline and plays what Baseball America called an energetic game.

The Mets are hoping Kaupe is on the same learning curve as fellow teenage shortstop Phillip Evans, a similar player who had a great season in Brooklyn in his second year after being drafted out of high school.

Kaupe is essentially Evans with less power, or a Ruben Tejada / Wilfredo Tovar type with more speed. 

Branden Kaupe

6. Matt Koch, RHP

It’s rare to find a Mets pitcher who disappointed in 2012, especially with the Cyclones, but Koch falls into that category.

His numbers weren’t that bad, but relatively speaking and considering he was a second round pick, he was definitely a disappointment.

Koch posted an ERA a shade above five in his professional debut, allowing 13 runs in 23 and one-third innings. His strikeout to walk ratio was 19:7, so like I said, his numbers weren’t that bad.

The Mets hope Koch was simply worn down from his 22 appearances at Louisville before arriving in Brooklyn.

When you look at Koch’s resume, it screams reliever. He was a reliever at Louisville, and a good one at that, giving up just 17 hits in 32 and one-third innings. He throws in the mid-90s, and can touch 97, but lacks good secondary stuff.

But for some reason, the Mets insist on making him a starter. Koch informed me in July that the team was slowly transitioning him to starting pitching, which was evident by his two starts to round out the season with Brooklyn.

Even though it was only two starts, his ERA was an even 9.00 and I still can’t fathom why the change is being made. The Mets need bullpen help at the Major League level and Koch can get there quickly if he can develop one plus secondary pitch. On top of that, the Mets have a logjam of starters who will be fighting for spots this spring. Why not just let Koch stay where he’s comfortable?

Matt Koch

5. Darrell Ceciliani, OF

Unlike the other nine players on this list, Darrell Ceciliani finds himself in the disappointment category, not because of his play, but because of his lack of it.

Ceciliani missed more than 80 percent of the season due to various hamstring issues. It’s something Darrell will always have to deal with, similar to what Jose Reyes went through during his career.

Thing is, whenever Ceciliani plays, he’s been good. In 85 at bats this year, the Oregon native batted .329 with eight extra-base-hits and ten walks. Ceciliani also picked up 66 additional at bats in the Arizona Fall League this October, posting an OBP of .402.

Some other strengths of the former 4^th-round pick include his strong glove, good speed and ability to hit to all fields.

Despite the injuries, Ceciliani still possesses considerable upside. His positive attitude, jubilant personality and young age (22) should aid his adjustment to the upper-levels of the Minor Leagues.

He just needs to stay on the field.

Darrell Ceciliani (Kid's a clown)

4. Cesar Puello, OF

Like his St. Lucie teammate Ceciliani, Cesar Puello spent considerable time on the shelf with hamstring problems in 2012.

He played nearly half the season (66 games), but was only O.K. in his second season in the Florida State League.

The Dominican-born outfielder batted .260 and drove in only 21 runs. He did have 21 extra-base-hits, but only four were round-trippers. As a top-10 prospect each of the last two years, the Mets believed Puello could develop Big League pop, but that has yet to be seen.

The most alarming part of Puello’s game is his inability to draw walks. He drew just seven free passes in nearly 240 plate appearances in 2012. That equates to a walk rate of 3.0%, good for dead last in the entire Mets organization.

He did improve that rate in limited play this winter, but the real good news is Puello’s full package. He is a physical specimen who can run, defend and hit. Baseball America called his arm the best of any outfielder in the system. If Puello can ever develop more power, he has a chance to be a legitimate five-tool Major League player.

Cesar Puello

3. Savannah’s Offense

While the Sand Gnats’ pitching staff led the South Atlantic League in ERA (by a lot), the offensive numbers appeared on the opposite end of the spectrum.

Savannah batted just .244 as a team and was one of only two squads that failed to steal 100 bases.

19 of the 21 players to don a Gnats uniform in 2012 hit under .300, with Cam Maron and T.J. Rivera as the only exceptions.

The main culprits, all of whom had over 200 at bats, were Albert Cordero (.194), Yucarybert De La Cruz (.195), Brandon Brown (.222) and Charley Thurber (.223).

The SAL is known as a pitcher-friendly league, but a team that ranks in the bottom four of almost every offensive category is disappointing at any level.

Offensive Ranks (Out of 14 Teams):
Runs Scored:                          575                11^th

AVG:                                     .244               11^th

OPS:                                      .691               11^th

SB:                                         98                  13^th

2. Akeel Morris, RHP

Morris was considered one of the purest raw pitching talents in the Mets’ system prior to his American debut in 2011, but he pitched his way to prospect purgatory in 2012.

His electric stuff and high strikeout numbers should have progressed him through the lower levels with ease, but Morris has yet to pitch above rookie ball, tossing to the tune of a 7.98 ERA in Kingsport this year. The largest contributing factor was surely Akeel’s 22 walks in 38 and one-third innings.

However, following a ten-run debacle on July 24, the Mets moved Morris to the bullpen. The move worked wonders and Morris was considerably better pitching in relief. He gave up just two earned runs in his final 16 innings, despite still issuing ten free passes over that span.

The former 10^th round pick out of the Virgin Islands still has a long way to go, but it seems the new role may be of great benefit.

Akeel Morris

1. Albert Cordero, C

There was no bigger disappointment in the Mets farm system in 2012 than Albert Cordero.

It all started this spring when the Mets chose NOT to promote Cordero to High-A after his strong 2011 season in Savannah, excelling in a league known for pitching with a slash line of .286/.324/.382.

But the Mets’ decision proved appropriate, as Cordero regressed with a capital R. That line dropped to .194/.276/.270 in 2012.

23-years-old and still fumbling around in low-A ball, Cordero’s hourglass is about to run out.

The shame in all of it is that Albert is widely considered the best defensive catcher in the system, with Baseball America donning him that honor earlier this month despite the struggles at the plate.

Albert Cordero