Why the Mets should pursue Gerardo Parra

by John Vittas (@JohnVittas3)

While many Mets fans are clamoring for the return of Yoenis Cespedes, let's not kid ourselves - it's probably not going to happen. As nice as it would be to have him in the cleanup spot for 162 games, that's not the Mets philosophy, which Joel Sherman so astutely laid out in this article. They're going for depth, trying to put together a roster of 13 proven, versatile Major League position players.
Between the Michael Cuddyer retirement and the team not signing Cespedes or Ben Zobrist, it stands to reason that the Flushing front office has payroll to play with, leaving them a variety of mid-tier free agent options to fill holes in the outfield and bullpen.

Juan Lagares has struggled against right-handed pitching
throughout his career.
(Photo: Jim McIsaac)

Let me be clear, I am a Juan Lagares believer. I think he's a tremendous athlete with a sustainable, line-drive swing plane that will produce a .280 average for the next 10 years. I also think Michael Conforto has a slump-proof swing and will bat .300 with 25 homers this year. So if it were up to me, I'd run them out there 162 times and drop free agent money on a better fifth starter (there's just so many this year, might as well get one for insurance) and the back end of the bullpen. 
But the Mets insist that they need a left-handed hitting platoon partner for Lagares, and when you look at his splits, you can understand why:


Juan Lagares     AVG / OBP / SLG (OPS)
2015 vs LHP       .273 / .333 / .438  (.771)
2015 vs RHP       .253 / .271 / .328  (.599)
          
Career vs LHP     .279 / .325 / .427  (.753)
Career vs RHP     .254 / .286 / .340  (.627)

Fortunately there are some affordable options in this year's free agent class.

Ideally, the Mets are looking for an outfielder who (1) handles right-handed pitching, (2) can play a capable defensive center field and (3) can play all three outfield positions.
Looking at the list of free agent outfielders, five players fit this description and played at a league-average level or better in 2015:

Denard Span, Gerardo Parra, Alejandro De Aza, Chris Denorfia, Will Venable

The problem with De Aza is that he's only played 17 games in center field over the past two seasons. In that span, he's suited up for four different teams, which means none of them thought he could play the position adequately.

Denard Span only managed to play 61 games in 2015.
(Photo: Mitchell Layton)

This logic can also be applied to Chris Denorfia, who played only 19 games in center across three different teams over the past two years. It can also be argued that his bounceback numbers in 2015 are the result of being in a stacked lineup in a hitter's park like Wrigley Field. If he ends up in Flushing, he'll be hitting in a similar environment to Petco Park and Safeco Field, where he posted an alarmingly low .602 OPS (on-base plus slugging %) in 2014.
Venable has been on a consistent decline over the past few years and let's face it, the Mets aren't looking for maybes. They went for Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker because they are as close to sure-things as you can get.
That premise would also eliminate Denard Span, who the Mets will reportedly be scouting during a private workout next month. While Span's speed, defense and track record could be appealing to the Mets' decision makers, the team is in the middle of their winning window. Is it worth it to count on a guy who could hardly stay on the field in 2015? Span battled constant core issues and a major hip injury, only managing to play 61 games this past season. While that may make him more affordable, do you want your biggest signing of the offseason to be an ailing, 32-year-old? I wouldn't.
That leads us to Gerardo Parra - who I attest will be the best option for New York to pursue.
Most importantly, his splits mirror Lagares', as Parra has always had much more success against righties:

Gerardo Parra       AVG / OBP / SLG  (OPS)
Career vs RHP        .289 / .335 / .432  (.767)
Career vs LHP        .232 / .296 / .302  (.597)

2015 vs RHP           .303 / .336 / .473  (.809)
2015 vs LHP           .238 / .296 / .362  (.658)

Presumably, almost all of his at bats in 2015 would be against right-handed pitching, so it isn't unreasonable to assume Parra will post an OPS around .800, which would be higher than Daniel Murphy's .770 mark from 2015. It's also significantly higher than .716, which is the mark set by Mets' centerfielders in 2015 (don't forget, Cespedes is included in that), and 200 points higher than the 2016 alternative of .599, which is what Juan Lagares posted against right-handers last year.

In addition to being the perfect compliment to Lagares, Parra checks the boxes that the other free agent options do not:

(1) Durability - Unlike Span, Parra has played at least 133 games each of the past six seasons.

Gerardo Parra only struck out 92 times in 155 games in 2015
(Photo: Mitchell Layton)

(2) Park Proof - Unlike Denorfia, Parra has thrived offensively in spacious outfields similar to Citi Field. He's a line-drive hitter who likes to find the gaps and leg out triples (he's hit 37 in his seven-year career) and could attack the right-center field gap at Citi Field, similar to what Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan did from 2009-2011.
His OPS figures in stadiums with massive outfields almost always out-perform his career baseline:

Career (988 Games): .730 OPS(On-Base plus Slugging %)
Sun Life Stadium/Marlins Park (15 Games): .866 OPS
Citi Field (21 Games): .844 OPS
Chase Field (385 Games): .768 OPS
Dodger Stadium (52 Games): .747 OPS
AT&T Park (48 Games): .738 OPS
Coors Field (48 Games): .725 OPS

(3) Versatility - Unlike De Aza, Parra has played 186 Major League games in center field, including 41 in 2015. He's not the defensive player that Juan Lagares or Denard Span is, but Parra's defensive metrics are similar across all three outfield positions, meaning you're not losing anything by putting him in center. Also, Parra has played over 350 games in each corner outfield spot and has more range than Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson, meaning he could serve as a valuable defensive replacement in games when he doesn't start. In other words, against lefties, the Mets would have one of the best fourth outfielders in baseball.

(4) Trending Up - Unlike Venable, Parra is just entering his prime. He posted career highs in home runs, slugging percentage, total bases, RBI and runs in 2015. His OPS of .780 was his second highest mark in seven MLB seasons, and would have ranked third amongst Mets players with at least 300 plate appearances in 2015. His 14 stolen bases would have led the team.

Sounds pretty good, right? The only conceivable knock on Parra could be his cost. After all, he's only 28 years old and you can be sure his agent is making a similar case to the one you just read.
But considering the market and who Parra is competing against (Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon, Justin Upton, Dexter Fowler, etc), it's reasonable to think he could end up being a bargain. If the premiere players are struggling to get what they want this late in the offseason, what makes you think a complimentary player like Parra is going to get what he's looking for? If Cespedes, Gordon and Upton are begging for $100 million offers, it's not off-base to estimate that something like a three year contract for no more than $40 million could be enough to land Parra.

I get it, $13 million a year for a part-time player sounds absurd, but think about how much stronger it makes the roster. The Mets would be maximizing the performance of Lagares and Parra, and providing a capable alternative should Granderson or Conforto go down.
It's similar to the Zobrist argument - Parra's versatility make him a perfect fit on any team, whether it be the 2016-2017 Mets of Conforto/Lagares/Granderson, or the 2018-2019 Mets of Conforto/Lagares/Nimmo. He's the kind of player that fits any roster and makes your team substantially better.

So do it, New York. Go get Gerardo Parra.

Mets 2014 Prospect Rankings

by John Vittas

Pre-Season Rankings

2013 Midseason Rankings

2013 Preseason Rankings

1. Noah Syndergaard, RHP

The final member of the Mets’ Big Three of frontline starters struggled in the PCL in 2014. He did show some flashes, turning in some dominant efforts and picked up the save in the Futures Game. He still projects as an ace, but will need to get more consistent, especially with his fastball command. Expect him to crack the Mets’ competitive rotation at some point in 2015.

2. Brandon Nimmo, OF

Nimmo began to put it all together in 2014, turning in career highs with a .286 average and nine home runs. He walks at an ungodly rate which makes up for his high strikeout totals. If nothing else, Brandon will be a high character left fielder who gets on base and shows some power in the Bigs. If he can continue to shorten his swing and raise his average, Nimmo could be a perennial All Star and Citi Field favorite.

3. Kevin Plawecki, C

Plawecki has been a quick riser and could debut soon. Many wrote him off for trade bait, with Travis d’Arnaud entrenched as the catcher of the future. But Plawecki’s remarkable bat control, strong skills behind the plate and knack for hitting can make him a long-time Big Leaguer. There’s no reason he can’t team up with d’Arnaud as one of the best catching combos in the game.

4. Dominic Smith, 1B

Smith was pushed by the Mets and placed to a full season assignment at 18 years old and answered the call nicely. The California native batted .285, stayed healthy and is now well ahead of schedule. He was called the best pure hitter of the 2013 draft class and his smooth swing could make him a dynamic bat at the Major League level. He’s not the most athletic, but his hands and instincts make up for it.

5. Michael Conforto, OF

Conforto was probably the most advanced bat in the 2014 draft class and could be in New York within two years. He provides major offensive firepower but some question his ability to hit for average and play defense in the Majors.

6. Dilson Herrera, 2B

Herrera was the most productive bat in the Mets’ system this year, batting .319 with 43 extra-base hits at the higher levels of the Minors. At just 21 years old, Herrera should now be viewed as a serious prospect.

7. Amed Rosario, SS

Supremely talented, Rosario turned his plus tools into success in 2014, batting .288 in Brooklyn at just 18 years old. He’s at least three years away, but Rosario could be the superstar shortstop the Mets have lacked since Jose Reyes.

8. Rafael Montero, RHP

Montero cracked the Bigs in 2014, and will get a chance to audition for the 2015 rotation in August and September. The stuff is Big League adequate, and his command can make him stick long-term.

9. Steven Matz, LHP

Matz had a fantastic 2014 campaign, reaching Double-A and posting a 2.33 ERA over 21 starts. But most importantly, he stayed healthy after missing two years with arm injuries. The New Yorker has the makings of a legit Big League starter, with good movement on his 90-plus fastball, and a reliable curveball and changeup.

10. Matt Reynolds, INF

Reynolds was the surprise of 2014. A career .235 professional hitter, the former second round pick and captain at Arkansas batted an eye-popping .347 between Binghamton and Las Vegas in 2014. He’ll have to compete with Eric Campbell, Danny Muno, Ruben Tejada and Josh Satin to be the Mets’ utility infielder of the future, but Reynolds’ youth should give him an edge.

11. Marcos Molina, RHP

Still a few years away, Molina was downright dominant in Brooklyn in 2014. He’s athletic, throws 95 and already has a plus changeup.

12. Cesar Puello, OF

Puello was the disappointment of the system in 2014, but still has five plus tools. Biogenesis doubts are swirling to say the least. He might not ever be the same without the drugs.

13. Miller Diaz, RHP

Diaz has been the system since he was 17 years old, but it appears he has finally put it together at 22. His fastball has never been in question (mid-90s), but the development of his off-speed stuff will determine where he winds up.

14. Domingo Tapia, RHP

It’s puzzling that Tapia has been unable to graduate A-ball, because his mid-90s heater and changeup/slider combo should be dominant. A conversion to the bullpen may be in order.

15. Gabriel Ynoa, RHP

The master of control, Ynoa walks almost no one. His low-90s heater and plus changeup keeps hitters off balanced. Ynoa appears to be on the Rafael Montero fast track thanks to his exquisite command.

16. Matt Bowman, RHP

The Princeton alum has held up despite his diminutive frame and Tim Lincecum-like delivery. His stuff is good enough, but Triple-A will be a big hurdle.

17. Jayce Boyd, 1B

Boyd got off to a slow start in 2014, delaying his inevitable Big League debut. He should start 2015 in Las Vegas, but the emergence of Lucas Duda make his future in the system unclear.

18. Champ Stuart, OF

Stuart has blinding speed and the potential to steal 50 bases each and every year. The good news is that he hit much more than anyone expected in 2014, raising his status greatly.

19. Jeff McNeil, INF

McNeil is a hitting machine with a quick bat and thin but athletic build. If he continues to hit, he could be a good utility infielder in the Majors.

20. Gavin Cecchini, SS

Cecchini has proven to be a slow developer, and the concerns about him are warranted. His more upright stance should help him delve into whatever power potential he has, and his defense has never been in question. It’s just a matter of whether he hits.

21. Jack Leathersich, LHP

22. John Gant, RHP

23. Robert Whalen, RHP

24. LJ Mazzilli, 2B

25. Akeel Morris, RHP

26. Cam Maron, C
27. Robert Gsellman, RHP

28. Matt Koch, RHP

29. Cory Mazzoni, RHP

30. Kevin McGowan, RHP

31. Aderlin Rodriguez, INF

32. Cory Vaughn, OF

33. Travis Taijeron, OF

34. Michael Fulmer, RHP

35. Michael Katz, OF

36. Matt Oberste, 1B

37. Greg Peavey, RHP

38. Chris Flexen, RHP

39. Brad Wieck, LHP

40. Jared King, OF

41. Milton Ramos, SS

42. Josh Prevost, RHP

43. Paul Sewald, RHP

44. Corey Oswalt, RHP

45. Casey Meisner, RHP

46. Logan Taylor, RHP

47. Eudor Garcia, 3B

48. Kyle Johnson, OF

49. Tyler Moore, C

50. Dustin Lawley, OF

51. Luis Guillorme, SS

52. Kevin Secrest, LHP

53. Wuilmer Becerra, OF

54. Logan Verrett, RHP

55. Phillip Evans, INF

56. Maikis De La Cruz, OF

57. Rainy Lara, RHP

58. Gaither Bumgardner, RHP

59. Ricky Knapp, RHP

60. Xorge Carillo, C

61. Vicente Lupo, OF

62. Dash Winningham, 1B

63. Victor Cruzado, OF

64. Jhoan Urena, INF

65. Juan Centeno, C

66. Luis Cessa, RHP

67. Tyler Pill, RHP

68. Octavio Acosta, RHP

Final Mets Prospect Countdown: No. 1-5

by John Vittas (@JohnVittas3)

Over the course of the offseason, Across the John has posted scouting reports on the top 40 prospects in the Mets system. With Spring Training in full swing, it's time to reveal the top five prospects in the Mets farm system heading into 2014.

Keep in mind, Across the John prospect rankings do not include any player who has already made their Big League debut. Therefore, you won't see names like Travis d'Arnaud or Wilmer Flores.

40. OF Darrell Ceciliani
39. RHP Luis Cessa
38. RHP Cameron Griffin
37. SS Jeff McNeil
36. OF Joe Tuschak
35. 1B Matt Oberste
34. RHP Hansel Robles
33. RHP Akeel Morris
32. OF Champ Stuart
31. OF Ivan Wilson
To read the reports on prospects 31-40, click here.
30. RHP Rainy Lara
29. RHP Luis Mateo
28. OF Dustin Lawley
27. 3B Aderlin Rodriguez
26. OF Jared King
25. RHP Miller Diaz
24. RHP John Gant
23. 2B LJ Mazzilli
22. RHP Cory Mazzoni
21. RHP Tyler Bashlor
For the reports on prospects 21-30, click here.
20. RHP Matt Bowman
19. RHP Robert Gsellman
18. OF Cory Vaughn
17. LHP Jack Leathersich
16. RHP Rob Whalen
For reports on prospects 16-20, click here.
15. RHP Chris Flexen
14. RHP Michael Fulmer
13. RHP Gabriel Ynoa
12. SS Gavin Cecchini

11. INF Dilson Herrera
For the article on prospects 11-15, click here.
10. RHP Domingo Tapia
9. 1B Jayce Boyd
8. SS Amed Rosario
7. C Kevin Plawecki
6. OF Brandon Nimmo
For the article on prospects 6-10, click here.

5. Steven Matz - LHP

Ward Melville HS (NY) - 2nd Round of the 2009 Draft

Opening Day Age: 22

Projected Opening Day Assignment: High-A St. Lucie

General Numbers: gave up just 4.1 hits/start in 2013 (A-ball Savannah)

Relevant Numbers: yet to reach 140 innings in his career

Positives: After two years of rehab, Steven Matz has resurfaced as a prized prospect. The lefty from Long Island registered a full-season-player best 2.62 ERA over 21 starts for Savannah. His emergence in 2013 goes beyond the numbers, as his fastball has returned to the mid-90s. His curveball and changeup are weapons and he’s working on a slider which should help him against lefties (LH batters had more success than righties). His motion is smooth and repeatable and his command was great. I’ll be the first to call Matz a top-5 prospect, and I think that’s where he belongs.

Negatives: Durability and experience are major questions. With only 27 minor league games under his belt, the Ward Melville standout will be the least experienced player of anyone in the Florida State League. The Mets will continue to monitor his innings closely, and it’ll take a while to build up his season-long stamina.

Style: Cliff Lee

Across the John Preseason Rank: 19

ATJ Midseason Rank: 34

Jonathan Mayo Top 20: Not Ranked

Keith Law Top 10: Not Ranked

FanGraphs Rank: 8

Baseball America Top 10: Not Ranked

4. Dominic Smith - 1B

Serra HS (CA) - 1st Round of the 2013 Draft (11th Overall)

Opening Day Age: 18

Projected Opening Day Assignment: Extended Spring Training

General Numbers: .837 professional OPS straight out of high school (GCL and R-Kingsport)

Relevant Numbers: too early for these

Positives: Smith is a pure hitter - the best of the 2013 draft class according to some. It all comes naturally to him. His swing is as pretty as it gets and that may not even be his strongest tool. Scouts have already said he could become the best defensive first baseman in the game. It’s all way too premature, the kid is 18, but the hype will grab your attention. His hands and bat speed are noticeable, and many see him as the top position-player prospect in the system.

Negatives: TBD

Style: Ryan Howard (better defense and less power)

Across the John Preseason Rank: Not in the system

ATJ Midseason Rank: 14

Jonathan Mayo Rank: 7

Keith Law Rank: 3 (37th in baseball)

FanGraphs Rank: 3

Baseball America Rank: 4

3. Rafael Montero - RHP

Higuerito, Dominican Republic - Signed as International Free Agent

Opening Day Age: 23

Projected Opening Day Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

General Numbers: 3rd straight year with a sub-2.80 ERA

Relevant Numbers: 85 hits in 88 IPs in the hitter-friendly PCL

Positives: Rafael can locate better than anyone. His control has gotten him this far, but its been his velocity to improve and take him up the prospect lists. He hit 96 at the Futures Game in 2013, and his changeup is as good as it gets. MILB.com’s Sam Dykstra called him the most underrated prospect in baseball. http://milbprospective.mlblogs.com/2014/01/24/rounding-the-bases-top-100-talk/

The other positive is that he’s weeks away from making his Major League debut. I’d bet he beats Syndergaard and deGrom to Flushing in 2014.

Negatives: He’s only played three years in the Minors and has never had more Ks than innings pitched in any of those three years, leaving some worried that he’ll be hittable in the Majors.

Comparison: Jordan Zimmermann (without the breaking ball)

Across the John Preseason Rank: 6

ATJ Midseason Rank: 6

Jonathan Mayo Rank: 3 (85th in baseball)

Keith Law Rank: 4 (60th in baseball)

FanGraphs Rank: 5

Baseball America Rank: 3

2. Cesar Puello - OF

La Romana, Dominican Republic - Signed as International Free Agent

Opening Day Age: 23

Projected Opening Day Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

General Numbers: 39 XBH in 91 games (Double-A Binghamton)

Relevant Numbers: raised his average 66 points to .326 in 2013

Positives: No one has Cesar Puello ranked this high, but the guy is as close to a 5-tool player as anyone the Mets have. In a season overshadowed by his PED suspension, Puello had a breakout campaign in 2013, turning his elite tools into on-field dominance. Registering an OPS of .950, Puello was on his way to a 20 HR and 30 SB season before the suspension. He’s built like a truck, and Baseball America has tabbed his outfield arm the best in the system each of the past two years. For a team desperate for outfielders, people have consistently overlooked the best position player prospect in Puello.

Negatives: He took drugs, that’s never good. But Biogenesis is gone now, and hopefully Cesar is the same player while clean.

Style: Yasiel Puig (yes, Yasiel Puig)

Across the John Preseason Rank: 9

ATJ Midseason Rank: 2

Jonathan Mayo Top 20: 6

Keith Law Rank: 9

FanGraphs Top 15: Not Ranked

Baseball America Top 10: Not Ranked

1. Noah Syndergaard - RHP

Legacy HS (TX) - 1st Round of the 2010 Draft (38th Overall)

Opening Day Age: 21

Projected Opening Day Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

General Numbers: did not allow a run in 3 of his last 4 starts (Double-A Binghamton)

Relevant Numbers: 133 Ks, 28 walks in 117 innings

Positives: Where do you even begin? He’s 6-6, 230, throws 98 miles an hour, knows how to pitch, and has the attitude to boot. He’s athletic and has three plus-pitches. A mid-to-upper 90s fastball with sink, a mid-80s change and a h-h-hammer that leaves hitters screwing themselves into the ground. He’s smart, competitive and knows what it takes to be the best. The consensus is that he’ll be up mid-season, some time around July. Get used to saying Harvey-Wheeler-Syndergaard, because that’ll be the front three for at least four years.

Negatives: 2013 was the first time Noah made over 20 starts, and so his innings could be limited the next two seasons.

Comparison: Chris Tillman (but better)

Across the John Preseason Rank: 3

ATJ Midseason Rank: 3

Jonathan Mayo Rank: 1 (11th in baseball)

Keith Law Rank: 1 (24th in baseball)

FanGraphs Rank: 1

Baseball America Rank: 1