Thoughts on the 2013 Mets Season

by John Vittas

With Opening Day just hours away, the giddiness that comes with the start of the baseball season has already set in.
With that said, despite my eternal optimism regarding the New York Mets, this is the least confident I've ever felt with an Opening Day roster. The last 5 years, the team struggled after injuries took their toll. But this year, there are holes already built into the roster.
Here are my predictions, concerns and potential bright spots heading into the year:

Top 5 Concerns

1. Who Will Fill Santana's Void?
With Johan Santana's career possibly reaching its tragic conclusion, a gaping hole remains in the rotation. Jeremy Hefner will fill it to begin the year. He is capable of eating up some innings, but will give up hits. I worry about how he will hold up later in the year when teams start to figure out what he is.
Zack Wheeler is the obvious answer to this question, but when will he come up and how effective will he be when he does?
If Shaun Marcum doesn't prove to be healthy or if Gee, Niese or Harvey get hurt, the starting rotation went from a major strength to a major weakness in just a year's time.

2. Can the Mets find steady and productive outfield?
Take 1 will include Lucas Duda in left, Collin Cowgill in center and Marlon Byrd in right.
I hope they outperform expectations, but that doesn't tend to happen with the Mets. There's plenty of options in AAA or even the bench, but it's doubtful that any of them will perform much higher than replacement level.

3. Who can be a reliable reliever?
There's many unknowns in the Mets bullpen, the greatest of which is Frank Francisco, who remains hurt after an ineffective year last year. Other than Bobby Parnell, LaTroy Hawkins and Brandon Lyon, there is almost zero MLB experience in the Mets bullpen, and that causes me concern.

4. Will Terry Collins keep his job?
Terry is a great manager. I want him here for the long term. But with his contract being up after this year, if the Mets get off to a rough start, the questions will undoubtedly swirl about his job security. That type of distraction is the last thing the team needs.

5. Will the team stay healthy?
This is the kind of team that will not be able to withstand any injuries, especially to their everyday lineup. If Davis, Wright or Murphy go down, the lineup will look incredibly bleak.
Injuries have been a major problem for New York over the past five years and it's just one of those things you cannot control.


Possible Surprises:

Collin Cowgill and Jordany Valdespin
I think both of these guys can have big breakout seasons in 2013. They're both knocking on the door of being Big League starters, and I think by year's end they will be a formidable 1-2 punch at the top of the batting order. They represent all the speed on the Mets roster and combine that with legitimate power and an entertaining flair.

Collin Cowgill

Jeurys Familia
The young righty will start the year in the Mets' bullpen. With his mid-to-high 90s heat, I could see him being a dominant back-end pitcher right now.


Guys to Keep an Eye on:

Obviously, top prospects Zack Wheeler and Travis d'Arnaud will be promoted by the All-Star break and have a chance to make a big impact in the second half.
However, keep an eye on these names to come up and potentially help the team sooner than later:

Wilmer Flores - if one of the infielders goes down, Flores can step in and start right away. He's a natural hitter with some power

Rafael Montero - Montero dazzled Major League hitters in Spring Training and is good enough to be in the bullpen now. However, we may see him in the rotation come September

Matt den Dekker - I don't see den Dekker making a big impact this season, but the chances he gets called up at some point are rather high. He won't recover from his wrist injury until May, but he seems like a likely candidate to be promoted if and when an injury occurs to any Mets outfielder. He can make some noise with his glove alone.

Overall Prediction: 79-83

This is the first time I've ever picked the Mets to finish below .500, but looking at the roster honestly, I just see too many names that won't be impactful.
And without a legitimate ace like R.A. Dickey, it'll be hard for the team to even sniff the postseason.

Why the Mets Should Keep Jon Niese and R.A. Dickey

by John Vittas

As MLB's Winter Meetings progress into their second day, reports of the Mets shopping starters R.A. Dickey and Jon Niese continue to surface.
Right now, it appears gauging interest for Dickey is GM Sandy Alderson's priority, but it seems as though most teams are not willing to sacrifice much for the 38-year old knuckleballer.
If no deal can be struck with Dickey, reports suggest the Mets could look to deal Jon Niese instead, who has more trade value around the league.

The Mets have Jon Niese locked up for five more years at just $5 million per season.

But, why trade either of them? The Mets have a very solid rotation heading into 2013, with Niese and Dickey as the 1-2 punch. They are the constants, the two starters Dan Warthen and Terry Collins can rely on. Matt Harvey is essentially a rookie and Johan Santana and Dillon Gee are returning from bouts with injury and fatigue.

Yes, the Mets have desperate needs for catchers, outfielders and relievers. And yes, if the Mets deal Dickey or Niese, they have plenty of reinforcements in Jeremy Hefner, Zach Wheeler, Jenrry Mejia, Collin McHugh, Jeurys Familia, etc. But everyone knows that pitching wins championships, so I still can't comprehend why the Mets are trying to get rid of their two best.

I love Matt Harvey and Zach Wheeler more than anyone, but they still haven't proven as much as Dickey and Niese have. Why plan on a 2014 rotation of Harvey, Wheeler, Gee, Mejia and another prospect, when you can have Dickey, Niese, Harvey, Wheeler and Gee. <<<- That second one sounds like a World Series contender to me.

The Mets are banking on a laundry list of legitimate pitching prospects, headed by right-hander Zach Wheeler, who was acquired from the Giants in the Carlos Beltran trade.

The thing people seem to be forgetting is that, yes Dickey is 38 and relies on one pitch, but that one pitch is something he can throw until he's 60 years old. And it's a pitch that has been getting better and better each and every year. He has the best knuckleball in the history of the game, and there's no ceiling on how much better he can make it. To me, giving him a 3 year, $40 million contract is an absolute bargain, and the Mets should sign it right now.

The man has done everything for this team the past three years. When the Mets went to a six-man rotation, he continued to take the ball on short rest even though the team that was clearly out of the race. What David Wright has done for this team the past 8 years, Dickey has done the past 3.
What better leaders for a young team on the rise than a pair of mature professionals like Wright and Dickey.
But right now, if I'm R.A. Dickey, I'm offended and disgusted by these trade rumors, after everything I've accomplished. I guess you can just add it to the list of adversity he's dealt with throughout his life.

2012 Cy Young Award Winner, R.A. Dickey. At 38, Dickey is the third oldest pitcher to win the award.

And on the other hand, at 26, Jon Niese has established himself as a solid #2/#3 starter and there's no reason to think he can't keep it up for another 8-10 years. The Mets have signed a lot of bad contracts in their day, but Niese's was not one of them. The team has him locked up for 5 more years, so why on earth would you consider giving up one of the best signings in Mets history?

I know everyone's response is the outfield and catching holes. But, there are alternative options:
People forgot about Kirk Nieuwenhuis after he got hurt last year, but he can be an everyday CFer and Lucas Duda in right isn't the worst option in the world. At 26 years old, he's only going to get better.
In my opinion, the Mets are 2 impact players away from being a contender. They need a power-hitting left fielder, which could be a Cody Ross/Ryan Ludwick type. Or, if they want to wait, prospects Cory Vaughn and Cesar Puello fit that mold as well and are only a year or two away.

The Mets don't figure to be big players in free agency this offseason, but former Cardinals and Reds' outfielder Ryan Ludwick is one big bat the Mets are interested in.

Catching, to me, is the biggest hole on this team. If there's any way the Mets can land A.J. Pierzynski through free agency, then the problem is solved immediately. Trading for Blue Jays' catchers J.P. Arencibia or Travis d'Arnaud can also aid the situation. Or, again, if the Mets want to wait, they have Juan Centeno, Francisco Pena and Kevin Plawecki on the way up too, with Plawecki (last year's 1st Rd. pick out of Purdue) being the key name there.

                                 

 

Mets catching prospect Kevin Plawecki (left) and Royals AAA outfielder and #1 prosepct Wil Myers (right)

All in all, if the Mets can land a big-time prospect and "difference maker" like the Royals' Wil Myers, then trading Dickey or Niese makes some sense. But if they can't pull in an impact player like that, I don't see how trading the two best pitchers on the staff makes any sense in a league where success is built on pitching.


Comments below are appreciated, let the debate begin!

You can follow the author of this article, John Vittas on Twitter @JohnVittas3