Mets Prospect Countdown: No. 6-10

by John Vittas


40. OF Darrell Ceciliani
39. RHP Luis Cessa
38. RHP Cameron Griffin
37. SS Jeff McNeil
36. OF Joe Tuschak
35. 1B Matt Oberste
34. RHP Hansel Robles
33. RHP Akeel Morris
32. OF Champ Stuart
31. OF Ivan Wilson
30. RHP Rainy Lara
29. RHP Luis Mateo
28. OF Dustin Lawley
27. 3B Aderlin Rodriguez
26. OF Jared King
25. RHP Miller Diaz
24. RHP John Gant
23. 2B LJ Mazzilli
22. RHP Cory Mazzoni
21. RHP Tyler Bashlor
20. RHP Matt Bowman
19. RHP Robert Gsellman
18. OF Cory Vaughn
17. LHP Jack Leathersich
16. RHP Rob Whalen
15. RHP Chris Flexen
14. RHP Michael Fulmer
13. RHP Gabriel Ynoa
12. SS Gavin Cecchini
11. INF Dilson Herrera

10. Domingo Tapia - RHP

Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic - Signed as International free agent

Opening Day Age: 22

Projected Opening Day Assignment: High-A St. Lucie

General Numbers: only allowed 87 hits in 101 innings (High-A St. Lucie)

Relevant Numbers: averaged less than 5 IP per start

Positives: Tapia has the hardest fastball in the system, and has been clocked at 100mph. He can generate natural 2-seam run on it too, and teammates have raved about his slider. So if he can ever put it all together, Tapia can be an impact Big League pitcher. But after a tough 2013 that included control issues, it looks like Domingo will be headed to the bullpen soon.

Negatives: Tapia walked 63 hitters and failed to pitch deep into games. He got pulled in the second inning on multiple occasions, and faded down the stretch. Again, it looks like if he’s going to have success, it’ll be as a reliever.

Style: Justin Masterson

Across the John Preseason Rank: 11

ATJ Midseason Rank: 10

Jonathan Mayo Rank: 16

Keith Law Top 10: Not Ranked

FanGraphs Rank: 13

Baseball America Top 10: Not Ranked

9. Jayce Boyd - 1B

Florida State University - 6th Round of the 2012 Draft

Opening Day Age: 23

Projected Opening Day Assignment: Double-A Binghamton

General Numbers: some interesting splits with St. Lucie:

hit 70 points higher against righties, 72 points higher at home, 108 points higher in day games

Relevant Numbers: .330 hitter with an OPS of .871 in his first full Minor League season

Positives: Boyd can flat out hit. His swing is as pretty as they come, and his numbers this year reflect that. The former Florida State star won the system’s “batting title” in 2013, finishing the season with a .330 average. His OBP (.410) ranks second in the system and he rarely strikes out (13.3%). Boyd can hit to all fields and should continue to shoot through the system quickly. Oh, and did we mention he’s an excellent defender, too?

Negatives: With only nine home runs in a full season, many will wonder whether he has enough power to be an everyday first baseman in the League. But if he’s batting .300 and winning gold gloves, does it really matter? Think James Loney numbers.

Style: Michael Young

Across the John Preseason Rank: 38

ATJ Midseason Rank: 15

Jonathan Mayo Rank: 20

Keith Law Top 10: Not Ranked

FanGraphs Top 15: Not Ranked

Baseball America Top 10: Not Ranked

8. Amed Rosario - SS

Santo Domingo Centro, Dominican Republic - Signed as International free agent

Opening Day Age: 18

Projected Opening Day Assignment: Short Season-A Brooklyn

General Numbers: Rosario improved his average by 20 points each month (R-Kingsport)

Relevant Numbers: none, he was 17

Positives: Rosario’s talent is supreme, which is why he’s already a top-10 prospect after just one season in the United States. Scouts say he generates loud contact and has the makings of a five-tool guy. He still has work to in all phases, but he’s already shown the ability to go the-other-way and has a knack for improving. I know his .241 average doesn’t look appetizing, but when you consider he was giving up 2-3 years to most of his opponents, it’s hard to knock is American debut.

Negatives: Amed is Raw with a capital R. You don’t normally mention “18-years-old” as a negative, but the Mets need a shortstop and Rosario is at least three years away. And with any teenager with 200 at bats of professional experience, there is always a considerable risk he will never pan out.

Style: Hanley Ramirez

Across the John Preseason Rank: 68

ATJ Midseason Rank: Not in Top 50

Jonathan Mayo Top 20: Not Ranked

Keith Law Rank: 10

FanGraphs Top 15: 4

Baseball America Top 10: 7

7. Kevin Plawecki - C

Purdue University - First Round of the 2012 Draft (35th Overall)

Opening Day Age: 23

Projected Opening Day Assignment: Double-A Binghamton

General Numbers: .305 average in first full pro season (A-ball Savannah & St. Lucie)

Relevant Numbers: lowest K-rate of all full-season players (8.5% of ABs) (A-ball)

Positives: Batting .305 in his first full season of pro ball, the former Purdue backstop grew as both a catcher and hitter in 2013. His pitch recognition and sound swing accounts for the high average and low strikeout totals. He’s a smart, durable, line-drive hitter with pop to the pull side. There’s a place for that at the Major League level. Some even say he could challenge Travis d’Arnaud for the starting job in 2015. While d’Arnaud will have 2014 to prove himself, Plawecki may not be as far away as some think.

Negatives: His arm is said to be a liability, but his other skills can hide it to an extent. He’s improved his blocking and game management, quelling most major defensive concerns. He won’t hit 30 home runs, but what catcher does?

Style: AJ Ellis

Across the John Preseason Rank: 13

ATJ Midseason Rank: 8

Jonathan Mayo Rank: 10

Keith Law Rank: 6

FanGraphs Rank: 6

Baseball America Rank: 5

6. Brandon Nimmo - OF

East HS (WY) - 1st Round of the 2011 Draft (13th Overall)

Opening Day Age: 21

Projected Opening Day Assignment: High-A St. Lucie

General Numbers: 71 walks (2nd most in the system)

Relevant Numbers: 2 home runs in 110 games (A-ball Savannah)

Positives: Nimmo has the makings of a star. He has the potential to be a five-tool player and the attitude of champion. However, that potential has not been met as of yet. Nimmo has filled out since going pro, but it hasn’t translated to any extra power to this point. However, he’s an above-average defensive outfielder, plays hard, works counts and runs well. There’s a good foundation, just don’t expect Brandon in New York any time soon.

Negatives: 131 strikeouts in 110 games is a HUGE red flag for someone who’s tabbed as a dominant talent. He might be better served with a more aggressive approach at the plate. Nimmo is already showing deficiencies against southpaws (.635 OPS vs. LHP; .794 vs. RHP) and the Mets didn’t draft him 13th overall to be a platoon player.

Style: left-handed hitting Hunter Pence

Across the John Preseason Rank: 7

ATJ Midseason Rank: 5

Jonathan Mayo Rank: 5

Keith Law Rank: 5 (92nd in baseball)

FanGraphs Rank: 14

Baseball America Rank: 8

Who Said the Mets Don't Have Catching Depth?

Minor League Catchers Following John Buck's lead in 2013

by John Vittas

Entering the 2013 season, the biggest hole in the Mets' system was undoubtedly the catching position.
Mets catchers finished dead last in the Majors in slugging percentage and third-to-last in batting last year. They were so brutally bad that they drew my eyre as the greatest disappointment of the 2012 season (http://acrossthejohn.blogspot.com/2013/01/10-biggest-disappointments-for-2012-mets.html) John Buck had more home runs in the month of April than the Mets catching core had the entire season last year.
So after 2012, the Mets decided to revamp the position, trading their Cy Young Award winner for Buck and the top catching prospect in the game, Travis d'Arnaud.

However, d'Arnaud went down with a broken big toe after playing just 12 games in Triple-A. There is no timetable for his return and so the Mets are consequently stuck with John Buck and Anthony Recker until at least the All Star Break.

While the position can still be considered a weakness if Buck cools down, virtually all Mets catchers have gotten off to an overwhelmingly positive start at the Minor League level in 2013.

No one more than Kevin Plawecki, who is batting .416 and is the only player in the Mets organization to do remain above .380. A first round pick out of Purdue last year, Plawecki's power numbers are there too, stroking five home runs and an organization-high 17 doubles in just 26 games. That total leads the South Atlantic League and puts him on a ridiculous pace for 75 this year.

Savannah's Kevin Plawecki leads the SAL in hitting (.416) and doubles (17)

Joining the party are a couple of Minor League veterans in Double-A who have been considered prospects for years but never possessed the numbers to back it up. But so far, Francisco Pena and Blake Forsythe are making names for themselves. Pena is batting .300 and Forsythe posted an April slugging percentage of .653. Like Plawecki, Forsythe leads his team in doubles and reaches base better than 40% of the time.

Blake Forsythe was a 3rd Round pick in 2010 out of Tennessee

Gordon Donovan / MetsMerizedOnline.com

Catchers Juan Centeno, Jeffrey Glenn and Albert Cordero have all shown improvement this year as well, going from afterthoughts to contributors.

While it is only one month, the catchers in the system have done what the team needs most - hit.

Top 5 Mets Catching Prospects

by John Vittas

5. Blake Forsythe

Univ. of Tennessee (3^rd Round pick in 2010)

Bats: Right                         Throws: Right

Opening Day Age: 23

Projected Opening Day Assignment: Double-A Binghamton

Blake Forsythe 

(tcpalm.com)

Positives: good power, strong walk rate and OBP, above-average arm, making gradual progress at each level, posted career-high average this year (.244), can be a run producer

Negatives: does not hit for average (never hit above .250 in a season), strikes out a lot

ETA: 2015

Projection: Forsythe was a disappointment in his first two professional seasons after being drafted highly out of Tennessee. After getting his numbers up in 2012 at the High-A ball level, Blake is starting to prove his worth. He gets on base quite a bit and possesses some power, so if he can keep improving as an all-around hitter, he  has a chance to crack the Major Leagues as a serviceable backup.

Best Case Scenario: power-hitting backup catcher (Kelly Shoppach/Rod Barajas)

Worst Case Scenario: doesn’t handle the upper levels and is dropped in 2014

Not in any Major Rankings

John Vittas Rank: #56 prospect in the system

4. Juan Centeno

34^th Round pick in 2007 Draft out of Arecibo, Puerto Rico

Bats: Left                            Throws: Right

Opening Day Age: 23

Projected Opening Day Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

Juan Centeno

(pbase.com)

Positives: very strong defensive catcher, good eye, most advanced of all catching prospects not named d’Arnaud, high batting average at high level (AA), doesn’t strike out much

Negatives: did not hit a single HR in 2012, only 12 doubles (no power), not a big guy (5’9”) so therefore little chance to generate any more power than he has now

ETA: 2014

Projection: Centeno continues to hit for a high average, batting .285 at Double-A in 2012. That ranks top-10 in the organization for full-season players. With good plate discipline and a strong defensive skill set, Juan could prove to be a serviceable backup in the Major Leagues, but needs to prove himself in Triple-A first. If he fails to hit a single home run in Las Vegas, then we really have a problem.

Best Case Scenario: Josh Thole with better defense

Worst Case Scenario: light-hitting third catcher

Not in any Major Rankings

John Vittas Rank: #39 prospect in Mets system

3. Cam Maron

Hicksville High School (Hicksville, NY) – 34^th Round, 2009 Draft

Bats: Left                            Throws: Right

Opening Day Age: 22

Projected Opening Day Assignment: High-A St. Lucie

Cam Maron

(mets360.com)

Positives: breakout season in 2012, batted .300 in a notorious pitchers’ league, tremendous walk rate (13.4%) and OBP (.389), handled playing every day for a full season very well in his first go-around, good arm, stays within himself, Mets fan from birth – turned down college scholarships not because he was offered a healthy signing bonus, but because he was picked by his favorite team

Negatives: still needs to develop some power and prove he can hit at the upper levels

ETA: 2015 -2016

Projection: Maron was one of the nicest surprises in the system in 2012, putting up good offensive numbers on a team that lacked them. After three years in the Minors, he knows what he needs to do to hit at each level. Cam began his pro career working out with his childhood hero out on Long Island, Jose Reyes.

Best Case Scenario: Platoon MLB catcher with Josh Thole-like numbers

Worst Case Scenario: struggles against lefties and never sees Triple-A

Not in any Major Rankings

John Vittas Rank: #36 prospect in Mets system

2. Kevin Plawecki

Purdue University (1^st Round Pick, 35^th Overall – 2012)

Bats: Right                          Throws: Right

Opening Day Age: 22

Projected Opening Day Assignment: High-A St. Lucie

Kevin Plawecki

(metsmerizedonline.com)

Positives: walked more than he struck out, power to all fields, compact, fluid swing, soft hands, good receiver and solid overall defensively, played at a high level in college, calls a good game

Negatives: average arm, very little pro experience to this point

ETA: 2015

Projection: Plawecki is a very solid all-around catcher who doesn’t have any glaring weakness. As long as he keeps hitting at every level, he has a clear path to the Majors.

Best Case Scenario: Solid everyday MLB catcher (.280, 15 HRs, 40+ doubles with a good walk rate)

Worst Case Scenario: he can’t hit the upper-levels and fizzles out in Double-A

MLB.com Ranks:  #17 prospect in Mets system

John Vittas Rank: #13 prospect in Mets system

1. Travis D’Arnaud

Lakewood H.S. (Lakewood, CA) (Drafted by the Phillies in the 1^st Round of the 2007 Draft)

Bats: Right                                      Throws: Right

Opening Day Age: 24

Projected Opening Day Assignment: Triple-A Buffalo

the fierce Travis d'Arnaud

(metsmerizedonline.net)

Positives: extremely athletic, outstanding arm, silly power and still hits for an equally ridiculous average, doesn’t let it get to his head, values the importance of being on the same page with the pitching staff

Negatives: one and only flaw – injuries, coming off of a knee injury from 2011 and has had back problems before

ETA: mid-to-late April 2013

Projection: Barring further injuries, there’s no reason D’Arnaud can’t be a superstar. He has the makings of one of baseball’s best. My only question is, will it come this year or will it take him some time to find greatness. Besides, how many 24-year-olds do you know that have been traded for two Cy Young-Award winners before they can even sniff a Major League pitch? The word phenom fits here.

My guess is the Mets start D’Arnaud in Vegas to appear prudent, but John Buck and Anthony Recker just aren’t good enough reasons to keep their best bat 3,000 miles away, so they call him up 3-4 weeks into the season.

Best-Case Scenario: the next Mike Piazza with a better glove and an actual arm

Worst-Case Scenario: power-hitting MLB backup (Kelly Shoppach)

MLB.com Ranks: #1 in system

                           #6 prospect in baseball (#1 catcher)

Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus Ranks: N/A (came out before the Dickey trade)

John Vittas Rank: #2 prospect in Mets system

Honorable Mention: Francisco Pena (#63), Tomas Nido (#85)