Top Ten Disappointments of the 2013 Mets

by John Vittas

1. Matt Harvey’s Torn UCL

This was an absolute tragedy. It can only lead you to believe that the organization is cursed. Harvey represented everything that was “right” about the Mets. He signified the attitude, the skill set and the method for future success. And it all came crashing down at that August 26th press conference.

Harvey burned two months in ignorant denial, sealing the fate of his 2014 season. Beyond the fact that the Mets will be 6-8 games worse because of his absence, it’s disappointing purely because it will be another 17 months before we get to see him dazzling hitters again. Get well soon, Matthew.

Image: AP / sportingnews.com

The Fallout

2. Ike Davis

Ike has Regressed, with a capital R. His first half struggles have become a constant. His once-promising bat is now a liability. His .468 August OBP might keep him on the 2014 roster, but Ike has flaws in his swing that need to be corrected.

His confidence needs to be resurrected and he’d be well-served to learn how to hit a breaking ball on the outer half of the plate. Unless he shows signs of a true Major League slugger in Spring Training, the Mets might be headed in another direction at first base.

3. David Wright’s Hamstring Pull

After signing his big 10-year deal, David Wright did exactly what he was paid to do. As the Mets entered the rebuilding stage of 2013, calling up their young prospects in August and September, it was Wright who was counted on to mentor them into Big Leaguers. But when he came up lame on August 2nd against Kansas City, the Mets lost their leader, essentially ending their season.

Still a presence in the clubhouse, Wright did what he could to help the youngsters from the bench, and even made it back to play seven games in September, but there’s no denying that his hamstring injury derailed his first season as the captain, leaving late-season Mets games anything but intriguing.

Image: Jay Jaffe (mlb.si.com)

4. Ruben Tejada

The kid appears to have hit his athletic peak at 21 years old, because the past two years have been a consistent free fall. He’s drawn the ire of his head coach and general manager with a lackluster work ethic. With three years remaining on his Mets’ clock, it’s curious as to whether Tejada will be dropped, traded or buried in Triple-A.

Speaking of Triple-A, Tejada ended up in Vegas this summer to rehab, and ended up being stuck there for 57 games (not sure if you can get “stuck” in Vegas). At the Major League level, his average dropped over 80 points and he looked incredibly benign at the plate. On top of it all, his sure-handed defense took a hit as well.

5. The Lackluster Debuts of Travis d’Arnaud and Wilmer Flores

Considering these two were the top position-player prospects in the system, a combined .206 average is not exactly what the Mets were looking for upon their arrival. Phenoms are supposed to look overzealous, not overmatched. And both d’Arnaud and Flores appeared lost at the plate at times in September.

d’Arnaud isn’t going anywhere, he’s going to have to figure it out - it’s that simple. On the other hand, the Mets have to make some serious judgements on Flores this winter.

6. The Demise of Jordany Valdespin

Valdespin may have been the most gifted athlete on the Opening Day roster, but he may be unemployed very soon. ‘Demise’ is definitely the right word. ‘Fall from grace’ is another. JV went from being one of the most exciting bench players in baseball in 2012 to an absolute pathogen in 2013.

A consistent pusher of the rules, Valdespin made up for it with offensive pazazz. But when he failed miserably on the field for the first time, his presence became a detriment. Tack on the 50-game drug suspension, and I’d be shocked to see Valdespin in Flushing ever again.

Let's Try to Remember This Valdespin

7. Bullpen Prospect Injuries: Josh Edgin and Jeurys Familia

As inconsistent as the Mets’ aging bullpen was in 2013, Josh Edgin and Jeurys Familia had two of the most promising arms coming into the year: Familia a highly touted prospect, and Edgin a southpaw 30th round steal. Both can chuck it in the mid-90s, but both had their seasons halted due to injury, forcing Collins to squeeze more out of guys like Scott Atchison, Scott Rice and LaTroy Hawkins. Personally, I would've rather seen Edgin and Familia.

8. Shaun Marcum

Shaun Marcum failed to be the Zack Wheeler placeholder he was supposed to be. 10 losses in 12 starts...ouch. His 5.29 ERA was better than 1.40 points higher than his career mark. It’s a shame too, because Marcum would have gotten plenty of late-season innings had he been effective.

9. Veteran Relievers (Aardsma, Atchison, Lyon, Feliciano, Byrdak)

With the exception of LaTroy Hawkins, none of the Mets’ veteran relievers were able to reinvent themselves and be high-leverage stoppers. Headlining the list, Brandon Lyon. The 10-year vet gave up 43 hits in 34 innings and couldn’t even make it to the All Star break.

10. Frank Francisco

Francisco must’ve had a thing for Port St. Lucie, because he had no desire to leave. And Terry Collins had no problem hiding him there. The guy who was meant to be New York’s closer wound up “rehabbing” a sore arm for five months, finally making it to the diamond just in time for the meaningless September slogs. Add him to the list of bad contracts, safe to say that $12 million went to waste.

Photo: Getty Images, zimbio.com

Five Bold Moves the Mets Should Make this Offseason

by John Vittas

1. Sign a Big-Time Outfielder

This is obvious. A legit power-hitting corner outfielder has been a glaring need ever since Jason Bay signed that wretched contract. The only two Mets outfielders worthy of the Major Leagues in my opinion are Eric Young and Juan Lagares. Both are speedsters. Therefore, New York needs a power guy to bat fourth and protect David Wright.

Fortunately, there are some options in the free agent market. Unfortunately, they will cost a pretty penny. There are now six free agent outfielders that hit 20 home runs this year: Shin-Soo Choo, Marlon Byrd, Coco Crisp, Carlos Beltran, Nelson Cruz and Raul Ibanez.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Curtis Granderson are also out there.

It makes sense to stay away from Beltran and Ibanez based on age. Ellsbury is likely to re-sign with Boston. Bringing in Byrd, Crisp, Granderson or Cruz wouldn’t cost as much, and the Mets get what they want, home runs. However, Cruz and Byrd are convicted drug users, Crisp has only performed in Oakland, and Granderson, well he’s a Yankee.

Therefore, Shin-Soo Choo makes the most sense.

Choo has stayed on the field and been a consistent hitter throughout his career. The Korean is a career .289 hitter and has stolen 20 bases or more in four of the past five seasons. But the reason Sandy Alderson has targeted Choo is his .423 on-base percentage this year. The guy gets on base more than anyone in the NL besides his teammate and fellow walking machine, Joey Votto. When you factor in his 57 extra-base-hits this season, Choo is the full package.

Shin-Soo Choo (photo: zimbio.com)

No matter who it is, the Mets need to bring in one of the players listed above. If not two.

2. Trade for Troy Tulowitzki

Troy Tulowitzki (photo: Dwayne McDonald)

Yes, this is going to require the surrendering of several good prospects. Yes, the Mets would owe Tulowitzki 134 million dollars over seven years. But, the offense Tulowitzki provides at the shortstop position is hard to come by, not only for the Mets, but for the whole sport. The open wound inflicted by Jose Reyes’ departure has yet to heal, and what better bandage than the best offensive shortstop in the game?

Also, the free agent pool for shortstops doesn’t tickle many fancies. Jhonny Peralta, Yunel Escobar and Stephen Drew highlight the list of unimpressive options. Escobar and Drew both hit under .260 and Peralta is coming off a drug suspension. Not to mention the price will likely be high for all three.

So instead of overpaying for a stopgap, past-his-prime infielder, why not land the biggest fish of all? On September 23, Metsblog.com asked fans if they would give up Rafael Montero, Travis d’Arnaud and Dillon Gee for Tulowitzki. 58% said yes.

While parting with d’Arnaud would be difficult, Gee and Montero are certainly replaceable with the depth the Mets have at starting pitcher. It makes for a good debate.

3. Give Daniel Murphy a 3-year contract

For a team that has lacked consistent, Major League bats, Daniel Murphy is one of two exceptions (the other being David Wright). Regardless of how high you are on Mets’ infield prospects (particularly Wilmer Flores), it's wise to go with the sure bet, and none is safer than Daniel Murphy. The guy can hit. If you disagree with that, go follow a different sport.

Let’s put his production into perspective. He finished second in the National League in hits this year (higher than Votto, McCutchen, Goldschmidt, Molina, or either Gonzalez). Murphy ranked in the top-10 in runs scored, doubles and total bases. He’s started more games than any other Met in the past four years, and is a career .290 hitter. The numbers speak for themselves.

Daniel Murphy (photo: Joe Janish - metstoday.com)

Murphy is under team control for two more years, but will earn what he’s worth in arbitration. So why not show him some love and lock him up for three more years? It shouldn’t take more than 35 million or so, and you get yourself a winner and a guaranteed 180 hits.

4. Trade away Wilmer Flores

I’m a big believer in keeping all the Big League bats on a roster, regardless of positional issues. However, Flores just doesn’t fit with the Mets. The only two positions he can play are occupied by the only two Major League bats the team has (Wright and Murphy).

Wilmer’s debut was disappointing, and he couldn’t even get consistent starts with David Wright on the DL. When’s he going to play when Wright is healthy? Additionally, Flores is just plain unathletic. His catching and throwing skills are fine, but it hurts to watch someone trip over a base and sprain their ankle.

I’m being a little harsh on Flores, I mean he’s only been in the Majors for a month. After all, I do think he will have a long career as a starter at this level. But the thing is, so do other teams. Therefore, his greatest value to the Mets is as trade bait. Whether they package him for a shortstop, outfielder or pitcher, Flores plus a young arm can yield noteworthy returns.

Wilmer Flores (photo: Jason Lempert - Bleacher Report)

5. Cut Ike Davis

No one was a bigger Ike Davis fan than me. I bought his jersey, looked to him for hope, and thought he would be slugging homers for a long time. But I think it’s time to cut him loose.

Maybe he heads out west and finds himself. But the bottom line is, the Mets have better, less expensive offensive options at first base in Josh Satin and Lucas Duda. It’s just the nature of the game. Satin batted .280 this year, while Davis labored to the Mendoza line. Who would you rather have?

Besides, if Satin or Duda don’t cut it, the Mets can sign a guy like Lyle Overbay to a cheap one-year deal and get more offense than they would from Davis.

Ike Davis (photo: Will Leitch - nymag.com)

Ten Best Offensive Players of 2012

by John Vittas

INCLUDES RETURNING PLAYERS IN 2013 ONLY

 10. Zach Lutz, INF

In his second full season in AAA, the 5^th rounder out of Alvernia proved he could handle any challenge the Minor Leagues might present. He finished the season one point shy of a .300 campaign, with a .410 OBP and a slugging percentage a shade under .500.

Lutz has some of the best plate discipline in the organization and has the power to boot, posting home run and walk rates that ranked top ten in the organization. However, he has two major problems. One: the injury bug. Lutz has yet to play a full season in his professional career and missed half the season in 2012. Two: the organization he belongs to.  Lutz plays corner infield, the two positions the Mets are most secure with at the Major League level.

His .321 average against lefties could land him a Major League platoon job at the very least. But unfortunately, that opportunity may have to come with another team.  

Zach Lutz

9. Cory Vaughn

It took him nearly two years to figure out the Florida State League, but Cory Vaughn had a productive, healthy season in 2012. His final totals rank top-10 in the organization in ten offensive categories, including home run rate, walks and stolen base rate.

Vaughn possesses Major League power and has tremendous plate discipline, which is why you can find him on several prospect lists. But his .243 batting average is why he’s rarely at the top of those lists.

If he can get more consistent with his swing and learn how to limit his slumps, Vaughn has all the tools to be a legit Major League corner outfielder.

Top 10 in org. in HR, RBI, BB, R, TB, SLG, SB, XBH%, SB rate, and HR%

Top 10 in Ks

8. Phillip Evans

It had been a full calendar year since Phillip Evans had played in a real game when he debuted in the New York-Penn League in 2012, but he showed no signs of rust, batting .280 in his first month and playing every day at shortstop for Class A Brooklyn.

Evans spent that year training in Port St. Lucie after being drafted in the 15^th round out of La Costa Canyon High School in California.

He showed a great eye, drawing 31 walks and stroked five home runs, which is a good number for a 5-foot-10-inch 19-year-old in just 73 games. But the most impressive numbers in Evans’ first season, was that he struck out in only 10% of his at bats, which ranks third best in the entire Mets organization. Keep in mind Evans was only 19 and playing in a league where he should be outclassed by former college stars.

Phillip has bulked up since going pro and has shown an above-average glove at shortstop. He had more at bats than any other short-season player (294). With that amount of early exposure and a positive response at such a young age, Evans could be well ahead of schedule.

Led Short Season players in G, H and ABs

Top 10 in Short Season HR, RBIs, BBs, R and TB

Phillip Evans

7. Matt Den Dekker, CF

It was the tale of two seasons for the former Florida Gators centerfielder, but when you put it all together, 2012 was still a very productive year for Matt den Dekker.

He led the organization in triples and stroked 56 extra-base-hits. That’s a very strong number for any baseball player, and when you combine that with his jaw-dropping defense, den Dekker still has to be considered a prospect.

His Double-A numbers were spectacular: .340/.397/.563, with eight home runs in 58 games. But after the June promotion to Buffalo, den Dekker struggled mightily. He batted just .197 in his first two months in Triple-A.

The good news for Matt is that he’s shown steady offensive improvement at every stop along his career. He got that .197 clip up to .248 in August and finished comfortably over the Mendoza line.

If he keeps improving, he could be a factor in Flushing soon. But with a .220 average in Triple-A, you may be wondering how den Dekker finds his way onto this list.

The reason is that his overall output was very productive.

He was top ten in the organization in triples, homers, RBIs, doubles, runs, total bases, stolen base rate, stolen bases and slugging percentage.

Led organization in strikeouts and had low BB rate (6.0%)

Top ten in hits, HRs, RBIs, 2B, Runs, TB, SB rate, SBs, and SLG

6. Daniel Murphy

There’s not much to say about Daniel Murphy. They guy can hit, that’s all there is to it. Murphy’s .291 average is right on-par with his career average of .292.

I don’t know how he does it, his swing appears long and loopy and can fall victim to some pretty bad slumps, but for the most part, Murph finds ways to shoot singles and doubles all around the ballpark.

The big concern with Murphy in 2012 was his lack of power, only connecting on six home runs, and not getting his first until June. But in reality, he is a prototypical number two hitter and still managed to drive in 65 runs and stroked forty doubles. So the production is still there and I’m not complaining.

Daniel has been nothing short of a blessing through these tough years, and will man second base again this season. It seems the Jacksonville native has found a home there after seemingly not having a position for so many years.

Led organization in games played and was 2^nd in doubles

Top 10 in organization in SO% (13.5%), H, ABs, AVG, RBIs and TB

Daniel Murphy

5. T.J. Rivera

TJ Rivera was never drafted, and he’s starting to prove to every Major League team that they made a mistake in passing him up.

Rivera came out of nowhere to have an outrageous season with the bat in 2012. The former Troy University star finished in the top 10 in the organization in hits, at bats, RBIs, doubles, triples, runs scored, total bases, OBP, OPS and SO%. That’s 10 categories.

His final line was .320/.369/.444, proving he can produce at a high level for a full season. Rivera wasn’t phased after his promotion to High-A St. Lucie either, hitting at a .306 clip in his FSL debut.

After 64 games and 255 at bats with St. Lucie, it’ll be interesting to see if the Mets think that was enough to start Rivera in Binghamton.

4. Brandon Nimmo

At first glance, Nimmo’s basic stats may seem like nothing special: .248 with 6 HRs and 40 RBIs. But if you look at his extended numbers, compare it to the rest of the league and consider that he’s 19-years-old facing pitchers that are two or three years older than him, Nimmo was much more productive than it seems.

The blue-chip prospect from Wyoming led all Mets short-season hitters in RBIs, walks, doubles runs and total bases. He also was top ten in the entire organization in OBP and walk rate.

If you extrapolate Nimmo’s numbers to a full MLB season, he would have hit about 15 HRs, 100 RBIs, 50 doubles, and drawn about 115 walks, which would have easily led the Majors.

Again, Nimmo is 19, projectable and has great athletic ability. Combine that to his numbers and positive, humble attitude, and the Mets possess a very promising outfield prospect.

Led SS affiliates in RBI, BB, 2B, Runs and TB

Top 5 in SS in G, H, AB, HR

Top 10 in org. in OBP and BB rate (14.7%)

Brandon Nimmo

3. Wilmer Flores

It was a great first year in the upper-levels for infield prospect Wilmer Flores. After his first lackluster season in 2011, Flores bounced back with a .300 average and 18 home runs in 2012.

More importantly, he proved he can hit AA pitching, posting a slash line of .289/.336/.463 in his first try in Binghamton.

He finished in the top-10 in the organization in almost every category, most importantly in home run rate, SO% and slugging. He rarely strikes out, draws many walks and can still hit for immense power. Very few players offer all three of those characteristics in one package.

Flores’ defense is still a work-in-progress as he transitions away from shortstop. However, he isn’t a terrible defender and could probably play another infield position adequately.

The upside to Flores is tremendous, as he is the only potential impact bat that could arrive in Flushing in the near future.

He has tremendous hands and terrific natural strength. At just 21-years-old, Flores continues to fill out and display the tools that makes him a pure and natural hitter.

Top 10 in organization in G, H, ABs, AVG, HR, RBI, 2B, TB, SLG (.479), OPS, SO% (11.3) and HR%

Wilmer Flores

2. Ike Davis

Despite Ike’s horrific .170 average through the first two months of the season, he somehow managed to become the second most productive hitter the Mets owned in 2012.

He finished his first full Major League season with 32 home runs and 90 RBIs. No other Met has hit 30 home runs since Carlos Delgado in 2008. You may not be surprised to find out that Davis also led the organization in both homers and home run rate.

As you also might expect, Ike did most of his damage away from Citi Field, with 21 of his 32 dingers coming on the road.

Excluding April and March, Davis hit over .250 with 27 homers and 69 RBI. That’s in four months. If Ike can figure out lefties (he batted .174 against them) and stay on that slugging pace, he can be one of the best perennial power hitters in the game.

Biggest power threat in organization (6.2% HR rate)

Also led org. in HRs with 32

Top 10 in XBH%, SLG, ABs, RBIs, BB, TB

Ike Davis

1. David Wright

I know what you’re thinking. Without any thought or analysis, I automatically just plugged Default David smack into the number one spot.

But I didn’t. After further review, he flat out deserves this spot, not just because he’s David Wright, but because his numbers back up the fact that he’s the most productive hitter in the system.

He led all Mets hitters in hits, walks, doubles, runs and total bases, and finished top-4 in home runs and top-10 in OBP, OPS and extra base hit percentage.

When the Mets were relevant through the first four months, David was batting .330 with 15 dingers and an RBI pace well over 100.

But when Wright slowed down, so did the team, which further exemplifies his value to the organization. And when you factor in everything else he provides, Wright belongs in the #1 slot in just about every subjective category.

Led organization in G, H, ABs, RBIs, BBs, 2Bs, R and TB

Top 10 in org. in AVG, HR, SLG, SB, OBP, OPS, XBH%

David Wright